Stat of the Day, 4th December 2017

Saturday’s Result :

2.25 Newbury : High Bridge @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/4 Made all and set steady pace, quickened approaching 3 out, joined last, ridden and kept on gamely when strongly pressed run-in, on top towards finish, winning by a length and a quarter.

We start a fresh week via Monday’s…

1.40 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £8,772 to the winner.

A consistent 7 yr old mare is my pick today, she has 7 top 3 finishes from her last 8 starts, winning three times. She has one win and one place from two runs at 3 miles and beyond and since a switch to Tom Lacey’s yard she has 3 wins and 2 places from 5 starts, all ridden by today’s jockey Robert Dunne.

Trainer Tom Lacey is one to look out for / follow and he consistently knocks in winners at a rate of 1 in 5. His 90 day/60 day/30 day/14 day returns all show a 20% strike rate and he’s one of those few trainers to show a profit from blindly backing all runners over the last two years, as his 42 winners from 220 (19.1% SR) have produced profits of 182.2pts at an excellent ROI of some 82.8%.

And in the context of today’s race, we can break those 220 runners down as follows…

  • October to April = 31/156 (19.9%) for 193.4pts (+124%)
  • hurdlers are 31/140 (22.1%) for 152.5pts (+109%)
  • his only runner at the track that day : 25/131 (19.1%) for 113pts (+86.2%)
  • his only runner of the day : 21/107 (19.6%) for 99pts (+92.6%)
  • over trips of 2m3f and beyond : 24/103 (23.3%) for 95.2pts (+92.4%)
  • in handicaps : 19/85 (22.4%) for 48.2pts (+56.7%)
  • in handicaps over 2m3f and beyond : 16/69 (23.1%) for 36.3pts (+52.6%)
  • handicap hurdlers are 16/67 (23.9%) for 51.2pts (+76.4%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner at the track that day : 15/58 (25.9%) for 55pts (+94.8%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner of the day : 13/46 (28.3%) for 54.4pts (+118.2%)
  • in handicaps from November to January : 10/33 (30.3%) for 47.8pts (+145%)
  • those ridden by Robert Dunne are 6/23 (26.1%) for 9pts (+39%)
  • and handicappers ridden by Robert Dunne are 5/15 (33.3%) for 10.8pts (+72.3%) us… a 1pt win bet on Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG which was available fin at least a half dozen places at 9.25pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.40 Plumpton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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