Stat of the Day, 5th December 2017

Monday’s Result :

1.40 Plumpton : Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/2 Tracked leaders, smooth headway to lead before 2 out, clear between last 2, kept on well, comfortably by 3.75 lengths.

Next up is Tuesday’s…

12.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Get Rhythm @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 1m 7.5f on Good ground worth £10,635 to the winner…

…featuring a 7 yr old gelding who has finished 2112 in his last four starts, culminating in an excusable defeat three weeks ago. I say excusable because, it was his chasing debut, the ground was unsuitably soft for him and he probably needed the run after almost 21 weeks off the track.

All that considered, a 2 length defeat over 2 miles when only headed in the final half furlong wasn’t a bad effort, but he looks better suited today as he should come on for having had a run, he should benefit from the experience of tackling the bigger obstacles, we’ve got good ground today and he drops back half a furlong.

He ‘s trained by Tom George who has a 20% strike rate over the last fortnight (5/25) with 3 of his last 8 chasers winning, so the yard seems in good health and over the last six years here at Southwell, his string are 25/81 (30.9% SR) for 33.3pts (+41.1% ROI), including of relevance today…

  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter : 25/71 (35.2%) for 43.3pts (+61%)
  • males are 19/64 (29.7%) for 26.7pts (+41.7%)
  • from September to March : 20/55 (36.4%) for 44.2pts (+80.4%)
  • on debut today or finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO : 16/39 (41%) for 51.5pts (+132.1%)
  • over 1m7.5f/2m : 13/39 (33.3%) for 22.4pts (+57.5%)
  • 21-60 days since horse’s last run : 12/37 (32.4%) for 15.4pts (+41.5%)
  • ridden by Adrian Heskin : 6/17 (35.3%) for 5.6pts (+33%)
  • 7 yr olds are 3/12 (25%) for 7.1pts (+59.2%)
  • and LTO runners-up are 5/10 (50%) for 15.61pts (+156.1%)

As I alluded above, Adrian Heskin takes the ride today and he has become Tom’s go-to jockey of late and overall together they are 68/331 (20.5% SR) for 76.6pts (+23.1% ROI) with Class 3/4 handicap chases providing 27 winners from 103 (26.2% SR) for 32.1pts profit at an ROI of 31.1%.

…pointing towards… a 1pt win bet on Get Rhythm @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 12.50 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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