Stat of the Day, 6th December 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

12.50 Southwell : Get Rhythm @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/4 Tracked leaders, led before 4th, ridden and headed 2 out, soon weakened.

Next up is Wednesday’s…

3.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Tawseef @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f on Heavy ground worth £8,122 to the winner…

This 9 yr old gelding has finished 1123141 in his last seven outings and was a winner by some 13 lengths last time out, 25 days ago.

He’s trained by Donald McCain whose runners are 7/34 (20.6% SR) over the last 14 days and over the past week, they are 5/24 (20.8% SR), whilst since 2008, the yard is 54/257 (21% SR) for 65.2pts (+25.4% ROI) here at Haydock, including…

  • males are 52/244 (21.3%) for 71.3pts (+29.2%)
  • over trips of 1m6f to 2m4f : 41/170 (24.1%) for 57.5pts (+33.8%)
  • over hurdles : 32/149 (21.5%) for 12.5pts (+8.4%)
  • in handicaps : 21/148 (14.2%) for 36.4pts (+24.6%)
  • on Soft or worse ground : 30/143 (21%) for 41.6pts (+29.1%)
  • from October-January : 34/135 (25.2%) for 54.6pts (+40.5%)
  • 21-45 days since last run : 36/132 (27.3%) for 96.9pts (+73.4%)
  • at Class 3 : 12/60 (20%) for 9.3pts (+15.5%)
  • and 9 yr olds are 4/16 (25%) for 21.7pts (+135.3%)

PLUS…since 2012 Donald McCain’s handicap hurdlers who won LTO 1-30 days earlier are 18/91 (19.8% SR) for 32.6pts (+35.9% ROI), including…

  • males at 16/82 (19.5%) for 33.2pts (+40.5%)
  • Class 3 = 5/21 (23.8%) for 21.2pts (+101.1%)
  • and 21-25 days since last run = 7/18 (38.9%) for 36pts (+200%)

AND…more generally since 2012, 4-10 yr old males who won a handicap hurdle last time out by 5 to 15 lengths, 4-45 days earlier are 259/928 (27.9% SR) for 285.5pts (+30.8% ROI) with heavy ground runners winning 31 of 105 (29.5%) for 33.5pts (+31.9%)

..giving us… a 1pt win bet on Tawseef @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.10pm on Tuesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.30 Haydock

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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