Stat of the Day, 9th December 2017

Friday’s Result :

12.40 Sedgefield : Charmant @ 5/1 BOG WON at 11/8 Held up towards rear, smooth headway 3 out, chased leaders next, led on bit approaching last, shaken up, ran on strongly, winning by five lengths.

We wrap up a very successful week via Saturday’s…

8.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Hallstatt @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 6, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over 2m0.5f on Tapeta worth £2,749 to the winner…

This old boy might well be 11 yrs old now, but he’s still running really well, as typified by finishes of 132 in his last three outings and was only beaten by a length at 20/1 over this course and distance last time out, 19 days ago.

He has 10 career wins to date, which have been achieved as follows under today’s conditions…

  • all 10 going left handed, 8 off marks (OR) of 61-70, 8 wearing a tongue tie
  • 7 at Class 5/6, 6 within 16-30 days of his last run, 3 times at 2m/2m0.5f
  • twice under Luke Morris, twice here at Wolverhampton and twice this year.

His trainer, John Mackie is 5/27 (18.5% SR) for 38.1pts (+141% ROI) here at this track in 2017, and of those 27 runners…

  • handicappers are 4/25 (16%) for 31.9pts (+127.6%)
  • males are 5/21 (23.8%) for 44.1pts (+209.8%)
  • male handicappers are 4/19 (21.1%) for 37.9pts (+199.4%)
  • those who last ran 16-120 days ago : 5/14 (35.7%) for 51.1pts (+365%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 18.14pts (+129.6%) all in hcps
  • handicappers @ 16-120 dslr : 4/13 (30.8%) for 43.9pts (+337.6%)
  • those ridden by Luke Morris are 3/5 (60%) for 12.55pts (+251%)
  • handicappers ridden by Luke are 2/4 (50%) for 5.38pts (+134.5%)

AND…male C6 hcps @ 16-120 dslr under Luke Morris = 2/2 for 7.38pts and this fairly simple pared back approach…

…gives us… a 1pt win bet on Hallstatt @ 9/2 BOG which was offered by Hills, Betfair & Marathon at 7.40pm on Friday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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