Stat of the Day, 11th December 2017

Saturday’s Result :

8.45 Wolverhampton : Hallstatt @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 7/1 Mid-division, headway over 3f out, soon driven to chase leaders, ridden 2f out, stayed on to dispute 3rd final furlong, no chance with runaway winner.

We start a new week via Monday’s…

3.15 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Stoical Patient @ 2/1

A Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £2,469 to the winner…

On a day that looks pretty poor fare with few statistical angles about horses at reasonable prices, I’ll keep it fairly simple and hope to get out ahead…

We’re going with this 8 yr old mare who is 3 from 3 (all in handicap chases ridden by today’s jockey jamie Moore) since a switch of yards to Gary Moore’s stables. Of those three runs/wins, all three are at Class 5, all were by margins of 6 lengths or more, two came at this venue and one over today’s 2m4f trip, so she can be expected to at least like the conditions.

Meanwhile, Gary Moore’s runners at Class 4 to 6 over 1m6f to 3m1.5f here at Fontwell over the last six years are 41/277 (14.8% SR) for profits of 54.4pts (+19.6% ROI), including…

  • in handicaps : 24/166 (14.5%) for 34.4pts (+20.7%)
  • same class race as LTO : 24/149 (16.1%) for 10.5pts (+7%)
  • ridden by jamie Moore : 24/144 (16.7%) for 5.83pts (+4.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 12/68 (17.7%) for 31.9pts (+47%)
  • 31-60 days since last run : 9/51 (17.7%) for 58.8pts (+115.3%)
  • and 8 yr olds are 4/30 (13.3%) for 22.8pts (+76%)

AND…from the above…Gary Moore / Jamie Moore / Class 4 to 6 handicaps / 1m6f to 3m1.5f / Fontwell / 2012 to 2017 / same class as LTO = 9/47 (19.2% SR) for 18.5pts (+39.3% ROI) with Class 5 runners winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) for 11.86pts (+74.1%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Stoical Patient @ 2/1 which was offered by Ladbrokes, SportPesa, 10Bet & Marathon at 5.40pm on Sunday, but please take the 11/4 BOG offered by Bet365 if you can, like I’ve done! And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.15 Fontwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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