Race of the Day – 13 December 2017

Race of the Day – 15:00 Lingfield

The Trainer Snippets report shows that Archie Watson has a quite brilliant record with runners that are turned back out again within seven days of their last race. From his last 23 such runners, he’s had 12 winners (52.17%) and 16 places (69.57%), for level stakes profits of 25.57 and 29.33 and an Impact Value of 3.72.

He runs attain in a ten-furlong handicap on the polytrack at Lingfield today, and he races seven days ago.


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When looking at the recent form of Attain on the racecard we can see that he hasn’t won for a while, although he did run well over 12 furlongs here in third place last time out, being beaten by just half a length. A repeat of that performance in a similar class race would surely see him go close again.

The Archie Watson yard has been among the winners recently, being 3/13 (23.08%) over the past 14 days for an Impact Value of 2.21. He also has a good record with his runners on the all-weather tracks, where his strike rate is almost three percent higher than his overall record. This has produced a small level stakes profit from 156 runners.

Jockey Edward Greatrex has a good long-term record here at Lingfield. Over the past five years, he’s had 14 winners (15.56%) and 31 places (34.44%) from 90 runners, for level stakes profits of 70.00 and 70.93 and an Impact Value of 1.29.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have the best record, with 15.17% of them going on to win the race. This is slightly ahead of prominent runners, but both show a heavy level stakes loss, so the bias isn’t particularly strong.

There doesn’t appear to be a great deal of pace in this race and there is the possibility that it could be falsely run. Attain is usually quite prominent in his races and I wonder if Greatrex will force the issue if the race starts off slowly. He has proven stamina over further than ten furlongs and is unlikely to want it to come down to an all-out sprint after a slowly run mile or so.

Click here for the 15:00 at Lingfield.

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