Stat of the Day, 14th December 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

3.00 Lingfield : Attain @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, not quicken inside final furlong

Next up is Thursday’s…

3.15 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Workbench @ 11/2 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m2.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £8,862 to the winner…

And a 9 yr old gelding in decent nick, having won two of his last five starts including a win last time out at Sandown 6 days ago in this grade.

Now he’s trained by Dan Skelton and almost inevitably ridden by Harry Skelton and over the 6 years of SotD, I’ve lost track of the number of times I’ve advised you to keep an eye on this pair, so in the interests of brevity and/or sanity, I’ll not bore you by repeating myself!

One angle about the Skelton “boys”, I might not have mentioned previously (or recently anyway!) however, is this quite relevant one…

Dan + Harry + Males + Top 4 finish LTO 4-15 days earlier + April to December = 36/102 (35.3% SR) for 12.34pts (+12.1% ROI) when sent off at odds of 7/1 and shorter. So, basically males turned back out fairly quickly after a decent run and not now considered a longshot.

Of these 102 qualifiers…

  • LTO winners are 20/50 (40%) for 1.79pts (+3.6%), tending to get well backed, so we need our early prices!
  • chasers are 15/40 (37.5%) for 10.13pts (+25.3%)
  • over trips of 2m1.5f to 2m4.5f : 16/37 (43.2%) for 21.48pts (+58.1%)
  • 8/9 yr olds are 10/25 (40%) for 8.41pts (+33.6%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 6/17 (35.3%) for 5.46pts (+32.1%)

Whilst more generally, in handicap chases, 9 & 10 yr olds priced at 15/8 to 13/2 within 7 days of their last run are 106/419 (25.3% SR) for 90.2pts (+21.5% ROI) since 2009, from which…

  • over trips of 2m to 2.75m : 81/225 (29.5%) for 101.6pts (+36.9%)
  • LTO winners are 35/120 (29.2%) for 42.6pts (+35.5%)
  • and LTO winners racing over 2m to 2.75m : 25/81 (30.9%) for 35.6pts (+44%)

..giving us… a 1pt win bet on Workbench @ 11/2 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.30pm on Wednesday, with plenty of acceptable 5/1 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.15 Taunton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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