Race of the Day – 19 December 2017

Race of the Day – 14:50 Catterick

The Shortlist is the report that is available to all registered users on a Tuesday, and it is excellent for highlighting horses that are well suited to the conditions they will be facing that day.

Discoverie makes The Shortlist when on the ‘Place’ setting today with a score of 11, having three sections of green and two of amber. He is a big price at a current 20/1, so is one I am going to take a closer look at.

When looking at the form of Discoverie on the racecard we can see that he has been racing over hurdles for the four races, but reverts to fences here today in a race in which he won last year from just three pounds lower in the handicap. His chase record is much better than his hurdle form and with Colm McCormack aim to claim three pounds in this one, he is effectively racing from the same weight as last year.

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Kenneth Slack has a good long-term record here at Catterick. Over the past five years, he’s had ten winners (26.32%) and 22 places (57.89%) from 38 runners, for level stakes profits of 10.36 and 13.29 and an Impact Value of 2.30.

He has a fantastic strike rate with his chasers and a similarly good record with his runners over the shorter national hunt distances, both having Impact Values of close to 3.

Colm McCormack has been riding well recently and has managed a couple of winners from nine rides over the past month, which has yielded a level stakes profit of 29.00.

The Instant Expert report highlights the good showing of Discoverie, and also shows that he is about the best suited in this field to today’s conditions. He is just the three pounds higher than for his last win (as mentioned earlier) and quite a few of the rest of the field is higher than that for their last wins.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have easily the best record, with 24.29% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 16.78 and an Impact Value of 1.78.

Halcyon Days and Maxed Out King have the highest pace scores and look the most likely leaders based on the last four races of each horse. However, in this race last year, Discoverie led early on and it will be interesting to see if McCormack will try and employ the same tactics this time around.

Click here for the 14:50 at Catterick.

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