Stat of the Day, 19th December 2017

Monday’s Result :

4.40 Wolverhampton : Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Steadied and switched left start, soon close up, switched right entering final 2f, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, edged left and ridden out inside final furlong

Next up is Tuesday’s…

1.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Mach One @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m on Fibresand worth £2,911 to the winner…

…and an in-form (2121 in last 4 outings) 3 yr old gelding who was a winner here over course and distance last time out eight days ago taking his A/W record to 2 wins and 3 places from just 6 efforts, including…

  • 2w, 3pl from 5 on standard, the same going left handed and the same in cheekpieces
  • 2w, 2pl from 5 over 1m, 2 from 3 under today’s jockey and a win & a place from 2 runs here
  • a win and a place from 2 efforts over course and distance.

Since last week’s C&D success, his stablemates have also been going well winning 3 from 9 over the last seven days for trainer Archie Watson, who is profitable to back blindly on the A/W!

Backing all of Archie’s A/W runners to date would have seen you collect 37 times from the bookies off just 162 bets (22.8% SR) making profits of 26.5pts +16.3% ROI) along the way and of those 162 runners…

  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 36/126 (28.6%) for 50.8pts (+40.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 19/67 (28.4%) for 27.6pts (+41.2%)
  • those running just 4-15 days after their last run are 17/58 (29.3%) for 43.4pts (+74.8%)
  • in December/January : 11/40 (27.5%) for 17.7pts (+44.2%)
  • and here at Southwell : 3/7 (42.9%) for 3.5pts (+50%)

Furthermore (and more generally), on the A/W here at Southwell over the last three years, it has paid to simply back the horses with the top Official Rating in each race. It sounds far too simplistic, but blindly punting them has seen 183 winners from 964 (19% SR) for 89.7pts (+9.3% ROI) !

9.3% doesn’t sound much, but trust me, from blind filter-free backing, it’s excellent. If you did want to filter them, a logical progression would be…

  • males @ 150/758 (19.8%) for 156.7pts (+20.7%)
  • handicappers @ 117/700 (16.7%) for 48pts (+6.9%)
  • and at Class 5 : 77/394 (19.5%) for 116.7pts (+29.6%)

AND…top rated (OR) males in Class 5 handicaps are 32/179 (17.9% SR) for 97pts (+54.2% ROI).

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Mach One @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.00 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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