Stat of the Day, 23rd December 2017

Friday’s Result :

7.15 Wolverhampton : Gracious John @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1 Half reared start, chased leader, led 4f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely, all out to win by a short head.

Last one before Christmas is Saturday’s…

2.45 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Three Faces West @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m7.5f on Heavy ground worth £15,640 to the winner…

…and an ultra-consistent 9 yr old gelding with plenty about him and his trainer to like under today’s conditions.

He was a decent 4th of 14 on debut almost 3 yrs ago and in 11 subsequent races has notched up 10 top 3 finishes (PU in the other!), winning on 6 occasions so far. He’s 3 from 7 over fences, winning 3 of his last 5 over the past 21 months. He won here at Haydock on heavy ground by 13 lengths in a Class 2 contest 13 months ago, before ending that campaign with a follow up win by 13 lengths at Newbury last December.

He made his reappearance in a Grade 3 race at Cheltenham last month over a longer trip than usual/today and wasn’t disgraced in finishing third. In his defence, he was running off the back of a 339-day absence, but now has the benefit of a run under his belt and drops down in both class and trip.

Now, shall we have some numbers? To date, this one has achieved the following of relevance today…

  • 3/8 on soft/heavy (1/4 over fences)
  • 6/7 after a break of less than 6 weeks (3/4 over fences)
  • 4/7 going left handed (2/3 over fences)
  • 3/6 under jockey Richard Johnson (all over fences)
  • 3/4 at Class 2 (3/3 over fences)
  • 3/4 in fields of 8-11 runners (1/2 over fences)
  • 2/3 over a 3m trip (all over fences)
  • 2/3 here at Haydock (1/1  over fences)
  • 2/3 in cheekpieces (all over fences)
  • and 1/4 on heavy (1/2 over fences)

And what of his trainer? Well, step forward Philip Hobbs, whose NH handicappers running on heavy during the main jumps season (Oct-Apr) are 22/110 (20% SR) for 29.3pts (+26.6% ROI) over the last four years, including…

  • those priced at 5/2 to 10/1 : 18/72 (25%) for 58.5pts (+81.3%)
  • chasers are 11/57 (19.3%) for 17.1pts (+30%)
  • under Richard Johnson : 12/56 (21.4%) for 12.5pts (+22.4%)
  • over trips of 2m7f to 3m1f : 6/30 (20%) for 9.98pts (+33.3%)
  • and at Class 2 : 5/24 (20.8%) for 8pts (33.3%)

Plus, it’s a Saturday… And that’s the day the big guns come to play and the best/most competitive racing takes place, making it generally harder to find a winner. Yet Mr Hobbs’ Class 2 handicap chasers are 24/134 (17.9% SR) for 44pts (+32.8% ROI) on Saturdays since 2010 and that’s more than his fair share of winners and a decent chunk of profit. In respect of today’s contest, those 134 Saturday runners are…

  • 17/68 (25%) for 38.4pts (+56.5%) under Richard Johnson
  • 12/43 (27.9%) for 56.1pts (+130.5%) over 2m7.5f to 3m1f
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 6.55pts (+59.6%) on heavy ground.

Want/need more convincing? OK, I’ve plenty, but I’ll cap this off by reminding you that our boy drops down in class to Class 2 today, because since 2011, the Hobbs’ Class 2 to 4 handicap chasers dropping down in class are 38/217 (17.5% SR) for 55.8pts (+25.7% ROI), including…

  • with Richard Johnson in the saddle : 26/117 (22.2%) for 65.6pts (+56%)
  • over 2m6.5f to 3m1f : 15/71 (21.1%) for 72.3pts (+101.8%)
  • and over 2m6.5f to 3m1f with Richard Johnson in the saddle : 10/42 (23.8%) for 56.1pts (+133.6%)

…all pointing towards… a 1pt win bet on Three Faces West @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Hills & Ladbrokes at 6.00pm on Friday with plenty of acceptable 10/3 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.45 Haydock

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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