Stat of the Day, 27th December 2017

Boxing Day’s Result :

3.25 Market Rasen: Focaccia @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 9/2 Prominent on outside, driven to lead after 3 out, headed next, weakened before last, tailed off.

No joy on a busy day, next up is Wednesday’s…

1.05 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Play The Ace @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3.5f on Heavy ground worth £18,990 to the winner…

And an 8 yr old gelding who has already won 8 of his 21 (38.1% SR) starts over fences, including 6 wins and 3 places from 10 over the last six months and has won each of his last four!

His 8/21 chasing record includes…

  • 7/17 with a tongue tie, 6/16 in cheekpieces
  • 7/14 within a month of his last run, 6/13 going left handed
  • 6/12 this year, 2/4 under jockey Jamie Bowen
  • 1/1 on heavy and 1/1 at today’s trip but stays (and has won) over further

His trainer Peter Bowen has a good record running horses in tough conditions, as his heavy ground handicappers are 21/106 (19.8% SR) for 65.6pts (+61.9% ROI) over the last five years and amongst those 106 mudlarks…

  • those racing over 2m to 3m are 21/76 (27.6%) for 95.6pts (+125.8%)
  • those running here at Chepstow are 6/21 (28.6%) for 35pts (+166.8%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 22.8pts (+142.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 7/11 (63.6%) for 27.2pts (+247.5%) : a small but astonishing sample!

More generally over the last couple of years, Peter’s runners have also achieved the following of interest/relevance…

  • chasers are 51/233 (21.9%) for 116.5pts (+50%)
  • hcp chasers are 44/215 (20.5%) for 103.3pts (+48%)
  • LTO winners are 22/92 (23.9%) for 36pts (+39.1%)
  • chasers who won LTO are 14/49 (28.6%) for 30.2pts (+61.6%)
  • hcp chasers who won LTO are 14/47 (29.8%) for 32.2pts (+68.5%), of which those running on heavy ground are 3 from 3 for 12.08pts (+402.8%).

…all pointing towards… a 1pt win bet on Play The Ace @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports, Coral, Hills & Ladbrokes at 5.40pm on Boxing Day.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.05 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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