Tuesday’s Result :
Next up is Wednesday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG
A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £10.007 to the winner…
Keith Dalgleish is better known for his prowess with Flat/AW runners, but also does quite well with a smaller string of NH horses and to date, his record with chasers stands at 11 wins from 28 (39.3% SR) for 21pts (+75% ROI) profit, all from male horses! It’s a small sample size, but does show that he knows what he’s doing and in respect of today’s contest, those 28 chasers are…
- 10/20 (50%) for 27.25pts (+136.3%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
- 8/13 (61.5%) for 20.86pts (+160.5%) over trips of 2m to 2m4f
- 3/7 (42.9%) for 3.71pts (+53.1%) at Class 3
- and 2/4 (50%) for 2.35pts (+58.8%) here at Musselburgh
He now runs this dual-purpose 8 yr old gelding, who won 3 of 5 starts over fences in 2016/17, including a 21 lengths success in this race last year before reverting back to the Flat/AW, where he won 2 of 4 ahead of today’s return to chasing. So, he effectively comes here on a run of 5 from 9, but it’s his 3/5 chasing record that’s more relevant here, as it contains…
- 3/3 when priced shorter than 4-1 & 3/3 in fields of 4-8 runners
- 2/2 over trips of 2m/2m0.5f & 1/1 here at Musselburgh
- 1/1 over C&D + 1/1 at Class 3 (Both in this race in 2017)
- 1/1 in January and 1/1 going right handed (also both here in 2017)
Plus, since 2010, chasers who ran on either the Flat or A/W last time out and either won or lost by less than 15 lengths then won 110 of 720 (15.3% SR) returns to chasing, generating 431.4pts (+59.9% ROI) profit, including…
- males at 98/653 (15%) for 418.9pts (+64.1%)
- handicappers at 58/391 (14.8%) for 233.6pts (+59.7%)
- 31-45 days since last run : 19/80 (23.75%) for 250.2pts (+312.8%)
- and here at Musselburgh : 3/12 (25%) for 2.72pts (+22.7%)
…giving us…… a 1pt win bet on Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!