Stat of the Day, 4th January 2018

Wednesday’s Result :

3.00 Musselburgh : Mixboy @ 3/1 BOG (2.7/1 after R4) WON at EVENS Led, mistake 3rd, not fluent 4 out, ridden after next, hard pressed 2 out, rallied when narrowly headed flat, regained lead post to win by a nose.

Next up is Thursday’s…

3.20 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

American Life @ 3/1 BOG

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A Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m7f on Heavy ground worth £4,094 to the winner…

Why?

Well, you’ve probably already looked at the race card before I got round to typing my notes up and you’re possibly wondering why I’ve suggested an 11 yr old that hasn’t won since mid-April 2016, but I haven’t taken leave of my senses entirely.

Despite not winning for quite a long time, he has finished as a runner-up in each of his last three starts. He was beaten by a length at Perth back in April on his last run for Sophie Leech and then was off track for 225 days before a yard debut for Oliver Greenall at Market Rasen, where he went down by 3 lengths four weeks ago.

He then suffered the same fate at Catterick a week ago, but can consider himself unlucky to have bumped into Tom Lacey’s in-form Triopas on those last two outings. There’s nothing here of that calibre and the fact that the third placed horses in those two races were 53 lengths and 9 lengths behind American Life suggests it could well be his turn today.

He has won 5 times over hurdles to date, which admittedly isn’t the best return from 59 efforts, but based on today’s race conditions, his wins have come as follows…

  • All 5 on soft/heavy ground, 5-25 days since his last run, in fields of 6-11 runners and wearing a tongue tie
  • 3 on heavy, 3 at 2m7f-3m, 3 at Class 4and 3 at odds of 7/4 to 4/1

AND…over hurdles on soft/heavy ground in fields of 6-11 runners wearing a tongue tie 5-25 days after his last run, American Life is 5 from 28 (17.9% SR) for 10pts (+35.8% ROI) profit, including…

  • at Class 4 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 11.7pts (+73%)
  • on heavy : 3/15 (20%) for 12.67pts (+84.5%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 4/1 @ 3/4 (75%) for 9.17pts (+229.25%)
  • and at trips of 2m7f/2m7.5f : 2/4 (50%) for 7.22pts (+180.6%)

…suggesting that these conditions are the likeliest to provide him with at least one last hurrah!

PLUS…Since the start of 2014 in UK handicap hurdle contests on heavy ground, runners with 2 or more previous heavy ground victories are 65/409 (15.9% SR) for 209pts (+51.1% ROI). Matt calls this the rule of two and those 409 runners include…

  • in January/February : 38/214 (17.8%) for 235.8pts (+110.2%)
  • at Class 4 : 28/170 (16.5%) for 42.8pts (+25.2%)
  • in January : 19/111 (17.1%) for 47.9pts (+43.2%)
  • over 2m7f to 3m : 13/87 (14.9%) for 43.5pts (+50%)
  • 11 yr olds are 7/28 (25%) for 30.4pts (+108.6%) and the most successful age!
  • and here at Bangor : 2/7 (28.6%) for 26.8pts (+383.2%)

…all of which points to…… a 1pt win bet on American Life @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.20 Bangor

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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