Stat of the Day, 6th January 2018

Friday’s Result :

8.45 Kempton :Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG non-runner declared lame an hour before post time….

Next up is Saturday’s…

3.20 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Play the Ace @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 2, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3.5f on Heavy ground worth £18,990 to the winner…

Why?

A chaser at the top of his game with 6 wins, 3 places and a 4th (but that was in a Listed event) from his last 10 starts, plus he’s won his last four taking his chasing record to 8 from 21, which based on today’s conditions also includes…

  • 7/17 with a tongue tie and 6/16 in cheekpieces
  • 7/14 within 30 days of his last run and 6/13 going left handed
  • 4/10 in fields of 1-7 runners and 2/4 under today’s jockey Jamie Bowen
  • 1 from 1 at today’s trip and 1 from 1 heavy ground

He is trained by Peter Bowen, whose NH handicappers are 20/106 (18.9% SR) for 63.2pts (+59.7% ROI) on heavy ground over the last 5 years, from which…

  • at trips of 2m to 3m : 20/76 (26.3%) for 93.2pts (+122.7%)
  • at Chepstow : 6/21 (28.6%) for 35pts (+166.8%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 22.77pts (+142.3%)

Plus, his handicap chasers who won LTO 4-30 days earlier are 17/64 (26.6% SR) for 27.9pts (+43.6% ROI) over the same 5 year period, including…

  • those priced at 7/1 and shorter : 17/54 (31.5%) for 37.9pts (+70.2%)
  • at 2m1.5f to 3m : 17/47 (36.2%) for 44.9pts (+95.5%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter over 2m1.5f to 3m : 17/40 (42.5%) for 51.9pts (+129.7%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/6 (50%) for 16.51pts (+275.2%)
  • on heavy : 2/4 (50%) for 7.38pts (+184.5%)
  • and here at Chepstow : 2/2 (100%) for 11.84pts (+592%)

And finally, Play the Ace was sired by Scorpion, whose offspring are 12/103 (11.7% SR) for 98pts (+95.1% ROI) in NH handicaps on soft or worse ground over last 5 years, including 9 wins from 47 (19.2%) for 128.5pts (+273.5%) at trips of 2m to 2m4f.

…all of which points to…… a 1pt win bet on Play the Ace @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available in half a dozen places at 6.40pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.20 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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