Stat of the Day, 8th January 2018

Saturday’s Result :

3.20 Chepstow : Play the Ace @ 3/1 BOG PU at 9/4 Prominent, pushed along after 5th, not fluent 9th, weakened before 4 out, pulled up before 2 out….

Next up is Monday’s…

2.30 Hereford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Steel Native @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 5, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m1f on Soft ground worth £3,509 to the winner…


The in-form Jamie Bowen is in the saddle here, so it’s worth noting that over the last 30 days, he has ridden 12 winners from 45 (26.7% SR) attempts generating 32.9pts (+73.7% ROI) of level stakes goodness, from which he’s 9/34 (26.5%) for 33pts (+97.1%) in handicaps and 5/13 (38.5%) for 34pts (+261.9%) in chases : all in handicaps.

He now gets the leg up on a 7 yr old gelding who has won two of his last three, including a heavy ground win and one on Soft grounds over 3 miles, so he shouldn’t be getting done for stamina. In fact his last three results on soft ground read 221, so he’s not afraid of a bit of mud!

His trainer David Rees is 29/184 (15.8% SR) for 109.8pts (+59.7% ROI) with chasers since 2010, of which his handicappers are 26/170 (15.3%) for 110.8pts (+65.2%) and of these 170 handicap chasers…

  • males are 23/153 (15%) for 120.4pts (+78.7%)
  • at Class 5 : 9/52 (17.3%) for 35.3pts (+67.8%)
  • over trips of 3m to 3m2.5f : 8/52 (15.4%) for 50.1pts (+96.3%)
  • on Soft/Heavy ground : 11/48 (22.9%) for 101.4pts (+211.2%)
  • in 2017 : 9/36 (25%) for 47.3pts (+131.4%)
  • on soft ground : 7/33 (21.2%) for 51pts (+154.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 8/23 (34.8%) for 37.1pts (+161.1%)

…giving us…… a 1pt win bet on Steel Native @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available in half a dozen places at 7.55pm on Sunday, although Hills were offering 9/2 BOG to those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.30 Hereford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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