Stat of the Day, 11th January 2018

Tuesday’s Result :

3.00 Ludlow: Tb Broke Her @ 7/2 BOG WON at 4/1 Held up towards rear, not fluent 9th, headway on outside 17th, ridden before 4 out, left in lead 2 out, stayed on, clear towards finish to win by five lengths….

Next up is Thursday’s…

1.30 Catterick:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Workbench @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m on Soft ground worth £8,058 to the winner…


Well, he might be 10 yrs old now, but this well-related (brother to Class 1 winners Sprinter Sacre, Saint Are & Dame Rose) gelding is still running well and has won two of his last five starts, including a win last time out 34 days ago wearing today’s blinkers for the first time.

His trainer Dan Skelton had an excellent year last year with his chasers and since the start of 2017, those runners are 56/208 (26.9% SR) for 53pts (+25.5% ROI), including…

  • those ridden by Harry Skelton : 45/156 (28.9%) for 65.5pts (+42%)
  • after a rest of 3 weeks or more : 40/140 (28.6%) for 75.2pts (+53.7%)
  • over trips shorter than 2m2f : 22/67 (32.8%) for 37.5pts (+56%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/55 (30.9) for 24.6pts (+44.8%)
  • on soft ground : 15/44 (34.1%) for 7pts (+15.8%)

AND…from the above : those ridden by Harry Skelton over trips shorter than 2m2f after a rest of 3 weeks or more = 14/38 (36.8% SR) for 41.8pts (+109.9% SR), of which Class 3 runners are 5/14 (35.7%) for 17.74pts (+126.7%).

PLUS…more long-term, based on today’s race conditions, Dan Skelton has the following strike rates….

  • 30.4% here at Catterick over the last 3 years (7 from 23)
  • 23% from LTO winners over the last 5 years (99 from 431)
  • 18.9% from those racing over trips shorter than 2m2f (209 from 1104)

Dan’s LTO winners racing over trips shorter than 2m2f have a 26.1% strike rate (49 from 188), whilst more generally, 10 yr old chasers from the sire Network are 5/15 (33.3% SR) for 15.7pts (+104.7% ROI)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Workbench @ 7/2 BOG which was widely on offer with BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.30 Catterick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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