Stat of the Day, 15th January 2018

Saturday’s Result :

9.15 Wolverhampton : Mouchee @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 Held up, hampered over 7f out, headway on inside over 1f out, strong challenge inside final furlong, just failed by a nose….

We now start a new week in Monday’s…

1.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Raised On Grazeon @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ Mares’ Handicap  over 2m on Heavy ground worth £4,809 to the winner…


This 7 yr old mare has had seven top three finishes from eight starts so far with 4 such finishes in all four efforts over hurdles, including a win last time out over 2 miles on soft ground when ridden by today’s jockey, Danny Cook, for the first time.

Her trainer JJ Quinn’s handicap hurdlers have been profitable to follow blindly over the last six years, winning 25 of 159 (15.7% SR) for 29.5pts (+18.6% ROI) profit, from which…

  • those racing at trips shorter than 2.5 miles are 20/97 (20.6%) for 61pts (+62.9%)
  • those who last ran 11-30 days earlier are 18/81 (22.2%) for 45.8pts (+56.6%)
  • from November to January inclusive : 9/46 (19.6%) for 16.3pts (+35.4%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/38 (15.8%) for 13.3pts (+35.1%)
  • females are 6/22 (27.3%) for 19.5pts (+88.7%)
  • and here at Ayr : 2/5 (40%) for 19.4pts (+388%)

In addition to the above, one of my saved microsystems tells me that over the last five years in UK handicap hurdle contests NOT run on Good to Firm or Firm ground, horses who won a novice hurdle race last time out 11 to 90 days earlier went on to win again on 160 of 879 (18.2% SR) occasions generating profits of 155.1pts (+17.7% ROI).

Of those 879 runners, those racing at the same class and trip as that LTO Novice hurdle win are 19/68 (27.9% SR) for 22.5pts (+33.1% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Raised On Grazeon @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 7.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.45 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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