Stat of the Day, 16th January 2018

Monday’s Result :

1.45 Ayr : Raised On Grazeon @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 7/2 Towards rear, headway before 6th, went 3rd before 3 out, ridden to lead before last, headed run-in, kept on and held towards finish beaten by 0.75 lengths….

Next up is Tuesday’s…

2.15 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Finaghy Ayr @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m3f on Heavy ground worth £5,458 to the winner…

Why?

A 10 yr old gelding who won over 3m0.5f on soft ground in a Class 2 contest at Carlisle two starts ago and although he was then beaten by stable mate Lochnell here at Ayr over 3 miles last time out (2 weeks ago), he’s now 4lbs better off for the re-match, despite only losing by a length.

Trainer Ian Duncan is 17/103 (16.5% SR) for 53pts (+51.4% ROI) in NH handicaps over the last five years, from which…

  • males are 8/54 (14.8%) for 34.5pts (+63.9%)
  • chasers are 8/52 (15.4%) for 35.9pts (+68.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 12/48 (25%) for 53.3pts (+111.1%)
  • December to February : 10/42 (23.8%) for 76.7pts (+182.6%)
  • on heavy ground : 7/35 (20%) for 20.2pts (+57.7%)
  • 1-20 days since last run : 10/31 (32.3%) for 43.7pts (+141.1%)

Finaghy Ayr has already won twice and placed twice from six efforts on heavy ground, which isn’t too much of a surprise as offspring of Lahib tend to like it muddy! Over the last four years, his handicap jumpers running on soft or softer are 9/55 (16.4%) for 41.9pts (+76.1% ROI) : all males. And of these 55…

  • those running in November to march : 9/45 (20%) for 51.9pts (+115.3%)
  • those who ran in the past 8 weeks are 8/45 (17.8%) for 33.5pts (+74.4%)
  • chasers are 7/41 (17.1%) for 40.4pts (+98.4%)
  • at Class 4 : 5/28 (17.9%) for 31.2pts (+111.5%)
  • on heavy : 4/20 (20%) for 18.13pts (+90.65%)
  • and 10 yr olds are 2/9 (22.2%) for 13.64pts (+151.6%)

AND…chasers running in the Nov-Mar period after a break of 8 weeks or less are 6/27 (22.2% SR) for 36pts (+133.4% ROI)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Finaghy Ayr @ 5/2 BOG which was offered by Bet365, Hills & Sunbets at 6.50pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.15 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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