Stat of the Day, 18th January 2018

Wednesday’s Result :

1.00 Market Rasen : One of Us @ 7/2 BOG non-runner Withdrawn shortly before the race, due to unfavourable going….

Next up is Thursday’s…

4.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Ocho Rios @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m3f on Fibresand worth £3,105 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner last time out over course and distance 27 days ago. Not only was that his A/W debut (and ridden by today’s jockey, Fran Berry, for the first time), he completely blew the start giving his rivals plenty of lengths, yet still came from last to first to win. A better start now today should more than compensate for a 6lb rise in weight.

Trainer Neil Mulholland’s handicappers with a prior course and distance win who also won last time out are 1034 (29.4% SR) for 4.073pts (+13.9% ROI) over the last five years, including…

  • males : 10/29 (34.5%) for 9.73pts (+33.5%)
  • C&D winners LTO : 7/25 (28%) for 5.65pts (+22.6%)
  • at 11/8 to 5/1 : 9/22 (40.9%) for 15.08pts (+68.6%)
  • 5 yr olds : 3/9 (33.3%) for 2.73pts (+30.3%)
  • over 1m3f : 1/2 (50%) for 0.35pts (+17.5%)

PLUS…since the start of 2016 here on the A/W at Southwell, males aged 5 to 8 yrs old who had the top OR in their race have won 19 of 58 (32.8% SR) for 149.6pts (+257.9% ROI) at Classes 4 to 6 over trips of 1m2f to 1m6f, from which…

  • handicappers : 15/48 (31.25%) for 149.2pts (+310.9%)
  • those placed 1st or 2nd LTO : 7/15 (46.7%) for 57.91pts (+386.1%)
  • over 1m3f : 4/15 (26.7%) for 6.69pts (+44.6%)
  • in January : 5/12 (41.7%) for 32.1pts (+267.4%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 3.23pts (+35.9%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Ocho Rios @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet at 7.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.05 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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