Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2018

Saturday’s Result :

12.20 Lingfield : Chester Street @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 Close up, pushed along and no impression 2f out, headway under pressure inside final furlong, nearest at finish….

Next up is Monday’s…

1.25 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Gin And Tonic @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap hurdle over 2m 0.5f on Soft ground worth £4,159 to the winner…


An 8 yr old gelding who won LTO over track and trip at a higher grade under today’s jockeys 34 days ago. That was the third time Jack Quinlan had ridden this horse to victory over hurdles, whilst the horse’s other achievements over the smaller obstacles include…

  • 3/10 here at Fakenham
  • 4/9 at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 2/3 on Soft
  • 1/1 in blinkers

Trainer Michael Wigham’s LTO winners are 18/55 (32.7% SR) for 40.74pts (+74.1% ROI) over the last 4 years, from which…

  • those priced at 7/1 and shorter are 17/43 (39.5%) for 30.1pts (+69.9%)
  • won over C&D LTO : 6/16 (37.5%) for 13.7pts (+85.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/10 (40%) for 0.48pts (+4.8%)

Whilst more generally over the last 5 yrs in UK handicap hurdles, former course and distance winners who either won or finished within 2 lengths of the winner last time out are 223/997 (22.4% SR) for 203.5pts (+20.4% ROI), including…

  • LTO winners : 178/830 (178/830 (21.5%) for 99.2pts (+12%)
  • 11-60 days since last run : 160/742 (21.6%) for 172.4pts (+23.2%)
  • Same C&D as LTO : 144/634 (22.7%) for 131.9pts (+20.8%)
  • Won over C&D LTO : 132/593 (22.3%) for 100pts (+16.9%)
  • Won over C&D LTO, 11-60 dslr : 100/460 (21.7%) for 101.2pts (+22%)
  • On Soft ground : 56/226 (24.8%) for 22.6pts (+10%)
  • at trips of 2m0.5f to 2m2f : 50/232 (21.6%) for 36.4pts (+15.7%)
  • Won over C&D LTO, 11-60 dslr at trips of 2m0.5f to 2m2f : 23/104 (22.1%) for 22pts (+21.1%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Gin And Tonic @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfred, BetVictor, Betway, SkyBet & Totesport at 5.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.25 Fakenham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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