Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2018

Monday’s Result :

1.25 Fakenham : Gin And Tonic @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 7/2 Prominent until pushed along 4 out, soon lost place, ridden when weakened 2 out ….

Next up is Tuesday’s…

2.55 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Final Fling @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap hurdle over 3m 0.5f on Heavy ground worth £3,509 to the winner…

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding who has finished 131 in his last three efforts over hurdles and was a winner here over course and distance (give or take 78yds) on his last outing 27 days ago. That came under today’s jockey in a big-field (16 ran) handicap at this grade on soft ground taking his handicap hurdle record to 2 wins and 3 places from 8, including…

• 2 wins, 2 places from 7 under Adam Nicol
• 2 wins, 3 places from 6 going left handed
• 2 wins, 1 place from 4 in cheekpieces
• 1 win, 1 place from 2 at Wetherby
• 1 win, 1 place at 3m0.5f/3m1f (both here)

And whilst he seems to have no real heavy ground form…(i) nor do his rivals, (ii) his previous efforts on heavy were at maiden/novice level over far shorter trips two years or more ago and (iii) offspring of the sire Milan are 16/67 (20.9% SR) for 7.32pts (+10.92% ROI) in heavy ground hurdle contests at trips of 3m to 3m2f over the past four years.

Jockey Adam Nicol is 11/38 (29% SR) for 74pts (+194.7% ROI) in handicap hurdles here at Wetherby over the past three years, whilst last year alone, runners trained by Rose Dobbin won 5 of 21 (23.8% SR) for 23.87pts (+113.7% ROI) here at this venue, including…

• in handicaps : 4/15 (26.7%) for 18.68pts (+124.5%)
• at Class 5 : 3/5 (60%) for 24.09pts (+81.8%)
• ridden by Adam Nicol : 1/2 (50%) for 12.05pts (+602.5%)

Furthermore, since 2011, Mrs Dobbin’s LTO winners subsequently sent off at odds of 13/8 to 9/2 are 17/44 (38.6% SR) for 33.42pts (+76% ROI), from which…

• at 1-45 days since the LTO win : 15/37 (40.5%) for 28.5pts (+76.6%)
• on heavy : 2/5 (40%) for 2.68pts (+53.6%)
• at Wetherby : 2/5 940%) for 1.69pts (+33.8%)

In addition to those race-specific details above, over the past 5 years in Class 4/5 UK handicap hurdle contests, horses aged 5-8 yrs old carrying 11st13lbs to 12st5lbs and were clear top of both OR and weights won 68 of 207 (32.9% SR) for 96.6pts (+46.7% ROI)…

…whilst in that same time frame in Class 5 handicap hurdles on ground rated Good or softer, males priced at 11/1 or shorter who had won a handicap hurdle by 1 to 30 lengths LTO are 129/418 (30.9% SR) for 125.6pts at an ROI of some 30%.

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Final Fling @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair, Betway & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.55 Wetherby

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!