Stat of the Day, 24th January 2018

Tuesday’s Result :

2.55 Wetherby : Final Fling @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 Prominent, led 2nd, headed 3rd, chased leaders, led before 3 out, ridden before last, held on close home to win by half a length…

Next up is Wednesday’s…

6.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Magic Mirror @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m on polytrack worth £3,752 to the winner…

Why?

Well, I actually picked this very horse for the equivalent race here 19 days ago, when she was a late withdrawal, but I only realised this after re-selecting her today!

With that in mind, I’m unashamedly going to lift the content from 5th January, as it’s all still relevant and then get myself a relatively early night! (it’s currently 12.50 am). So here goes…

She’s a 5 yr old mare who has finished 2113 in her last four runs : all here at Kempton including 213 over 7f and a course and distance win over a mile two starts ago.

Her trainer Mark Rimell is 5 from 13 (38.5% SR) for 156.35pts (+1202.6% ROI) here at Kempton, all in handicaps, from which…

  • in fields of 11-14 runners : 5/11 (45.6%) for 158.34pts (+1439.5%)
  • females are 4/10 (40%) for 149.32pts (+1493.2%)
  • those ridden by Tom Marquand are 4/7 (57.1%) for 159.66pts (+2280.4%)
  • and over this 1m course and distance : 2/3 (66.6%) for 143.89pts (+4796.47%)

Now, at this point I have to point out that the above results and returns are totally skewed by Magic Mirror herself, as those wins above not only contain a 50/1 winner that paid out at 151.75 at Betfair SP (deducting 100pts from the figures still makes them viable), but the majority of the runs were from her too!

In fact, here at Kempton, she has 4 wins from 9, including 4 from 7 in fields of 11-14 runners, 3 from 6 under Tom Marquand and 2 from 3 over course and distance. She loves it around here, has conditions set to suit and I expect another decent run from her today…

…hence…a 1pt win bet on Magic Mirror @ 11/4 BOG which was available from 10Bet, BetVictor, SportPesa & SkyBet at 5.40pm on Tuesday, whilst those of you with an unrestricted Bet365 account should take their 3/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.45 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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