Friday’s Result :
12.40 Lingfield : Carp Kid @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 4/5 Tracked leading pair, 2nd over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong, no chance with winner…
Next up is Saturday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Major Hindrance @ 10/3 BOG
A Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £4,614 to the winner…
Since the start of 2014, Henry Oliver’s Class 2 to 5 handicap chasers are 26 from 135 (19.3% SR) for profits of 60.1pts at an ROI of 44.5%, from which…
- those last seen 11-45 days earlier are 23/100 (23%) for 76.2pts (+76.2%)
- in the November to February period : 20/87 (23%) for 70.1pts (+80.5%)
- and from Nov-Feb, 11-45 dslr = 18/75 (24%) for 69.7pts (+93%), with today’s jockey Dave Crosse riding 3 winners (and a placer!) from 4 (75% SR) for 34.7pts (+867.3% ROI).
Fitting the above conditions is this 8 yr old gelding who has 2 wins and a place from his last five efforts, including a win LTO at Exeter 26 days ago over 2m3f on similarly heavy ground to today. In fact, based on today’s contest, he should be well suited, as he has…
- a win and two places from five heavy ground runs
- won at both 2m3f and 2m5.5f
- two wins at Class 4
- won 2 of his 4 starts in the Jan-March opening quarter
- a win and a place from the two previous runs under Dave Crosse
He’s by Kris Krin, whose UK handicap jumpers running on soft ground or worse are 11/62 (17.7% SR) for 9.61pts (+15.5% ROI) since the start of 2013, from which…
- on heavy ground : 6/30 (20%) for 9.86pts (+32.9%)
- chasers on heavy : 5/22 (22.7%) for 10pts (+45.5%)
- Class 4 chasers on heavy : 5/16 (31.25%) for 16pts (+100%)
- Class 4 chasers over 2m3f to 3m1f on heavy : 5/10 950%) for 2pts (+220%)
- and Class 4 chasers over 2m3f to 3m1f on heavy who also won LTO : 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.8pts (+393.3%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Major Hindrance @ 10/3 BOG which was available from SkyBet & BetVictor at 5.50pm on Friday, whilst those with an unrestricted Bet365 account can get 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!