Stat of the Day, 30th January 2018

Monday’s Result :

2.40 Hereford : All Is Good @ 7/2 BOG (=2.8/1 after a 20p R4) WON at 15/8 Led, headed after 1st, led before 3rd, clear after 2 out until last, stayed on to win by 1.5 lengths…

Next up is Tuesday’s…

2.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kommander Kirkup @ 9/2 BOG

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A Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap over 6f on Fibresand worth £3,752 to the winner…

Why?

Once again (like Monday), it’s a day of few opportunities from either a statistical or a quality perspective, but I think I’ve found us another to explain value proposition (as after R4, we still made almost 150% of SP yesterday), so I’m just going to give you a snippet from horse, trainer and jockey in support of my selection.

The horse…

…has run here four times to date (his last four runs in fact), all over today’s course and distance, winning twice and two runner-up finishes, including last time out when beaten by just a neck at a higher grade than today, so not only is he well suited by track and trip, he’s back at a more realistic level of race.

The trainer…

…Michael Herrington (more famous at home, perhaps?) has 4 winners from 16 on the A/W track here at Southwell over the last 14 months and this 25% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 35.5pts at a terrific ROI of 22.1%, albeit from a small dataset.

and the Jockey…

…who is probably more familiar to you, is Andrew Mullen. Andrew seems to like/do well in this type of race, as since 2010, his record in 6f races on the fibresand piloting horses priced at 7/4 to 10/1 currently shows 14 winners from 58 (24.1% SR) for 27.6pts (+47.6% ROI), including…

  • in handicaps : 11/41 (26.8%) for 20.8pts (+50.7%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/16 (25%) for 20.4pts (+127.4%)
  • for Michael Herrington : 1/2 (50%) for 3.65pts (+182.5%) both on Kommander Kirkup.

…and that gives us…a 1pt win bet on Kommander Kirkup @ 9/2 BOG which was available from SkyBet & Bet365 at 5.30pm on Monday. Betfred & Totesport were matching those odds, but don’t/won’t offer BOG until raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.15 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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