Stat of the Day, 31st January 2018

Tuesday’s Result :

2.15 Southwell : Kommander Kirkup @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 Soon outpaced in rear, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, never reached winner…

We end another profitable month with Wednesday’s…

1.45 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Head To The Stars @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m4.5f on Heavy ground worth £8,735 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from his last 6 starts including a win last time out (25 days ago) over a slighlty longer trip than today, but on similarly heavy ground under today’s jockey at Wincanton, meaning that his hurdles career record now includes the following…

• 2 wins and a place from with today’s rider
• a win and a place from three efforts at this trip
• a win and a place from 2 visits to Leicester
• a win and a place from 2 over course and distance
• a win and a place from 2 on heavy ground
• and he’s 1 from 1 in January

Meanwhile, the rest of his stablemates at Henry Daly’s yard also seem to be in fine form with a 30 day record of 9 wins from 25 (36% SR), a 14-day return of 4 from 11 (36.4%) and 2 winners from 5 (40%) over the past week.

Henry’s LTO winners tend to fare well, too, winning 13 of 47 (27.7% SR) follow-up attempts since the start of 2016 producing level stakes profits of 15pts at an ROI of 31.9% and these 47 runners include…

• at odds of 15/8 to 7/1 : 12/32 (37.5%) for 27.85pts (+87%)
• handicaps : 8/28 (28.6%) for 10.23pts (+36.5%)
• handicappers at odds of 15/8 to 7/1 : 8/21 (38.1%) for 17.23pts (+82%)
• at Class 3 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 2.72pts (+30.2%)
• Class 3 handicappers : 2/7 (28.6%) for 1.3pts (+18.6%)
• Class 3 at odds of 15/8 to 7/1 : 3/6 (50%) for 5.72pts (+95.4%)
• and Class 3 handicappers at odds of 15/8 to 7/1 : 2/5 (40%) for 3.3pts (+66%)

Whilst more generally, since the start of 2013 in Class 3 handicap hurdle contests, LTO winners with at least one course and distance win to their name are 57/212 (26.9% SR) for 161.3pts (+76.1% ROI) with those racing on heavy ground winning their fair share of races at 7 from 27 (25.9% SR) for 8.54pts (+31.6%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Head To The Stars @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Coral & Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.45 Leicester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!