Stat of the Day, 2nd February 2018

Thursday’s Result :

3.35 Wincanton : Kayf Adventure @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 6/4 Held up, not always fluent, headway on outside 7th, 2nd from next, led before 3 out, headed before mistake last, no extra and beaten by seven lengths…

We continue with Friday’s…

4.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Easy Tiger @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ A/W Apprentices’ Handicap over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £7,246 to the winner…

Why?

My initial interest came from the Horses for Courses report that told me this horse had won 3 times from 8 starts here at Lingfield, including a 1 from 2 record over course and distance and then took it from there, finding that…

…trainer Malcolm Saunders’ handicappers are 20/114 (17.5% SR) for 15.2pts (+13.3% ROI) profit when backed blindly since the start of 2017, including…

  • at trips of 5.5f to 10f : 16/61 (19.75%) for 22.4pts (+27.6%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 17/57 (29.8%) for 25.5pts (+44.7%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter over trips of 5.5f to 10f : 17/56 (30.4%) for 26.5pts (+47.3%)
  • at Class 3 : 2/5 (40%) for 6.45pts (+129%)
  • and Class 3, to 7/1 and to 10f = 2/4 (50%) for 7.45pts (+186.3%)

Since 2015, on days when he’s had just the one runner, Malcolm has 20 wins from 90 (22.2% SR), all in handicaps and producing 82.1pts profit at an ROI of 91.3%.

In that same 37 months time frame, his handicappers dropping in class are 16/66 (24.2% SR) for 58.1pts (+88.1% ROI), with those dropping in class winning 5 of 17 (29.4% SR) for 49pts (+288% ROI).

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Easy Tiger @ 4/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Coral & SportPesa at 5.45pm on Thursday with Bet365 a little better at 9/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.15 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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