Stat of the Day, 7th February 2018

Tuesday’s Result :

3.05 Southwell : Foolaad @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/10 Always prominent, every chance over 1f out, led well inside final furlong, stayed on well to win by a neck…

We continue with Wednesday’s…

2.25 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Mossys Lodge @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 7, 7f handicap on Polytrack worth £2,264 to the winner…

Why?

Trainer Anthony Carson’s A/W handicappers are 13 from 87 (14.9% SR) for 73.56pts (+84.6% ROI) since the start of 2016 and these include of relevance today…

  • over 7f : 7/38 (18.4%) for 43.77pts (+115.2%)
  • ridden by William Carson : 6/37 (16.2%) for 49.09pts (+132.7%)
  • January to March : 5/35 (14.3%) for 26.88pts (+76.8%)
  • in fields of 9-10 runners : 6/28 (21.4%) for 77.01pts (+275%)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/17 (23.5%) for 16.57pts (+97.5%)
  • those beaten by a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 3/14 (21.4%) for 24.27pts (+173.4%)
  • those finishing 3rd LTO are 4/11 (36.4%) for 41.37pts (+376.1%)

…whilst more generally since 2013 in UK A/W handicaps, horses running over 6f to 1m2f just 2 to 5 days after a win or a defeat by less than 3 lengths are 222/863 (25.7% SR) for 238.11pts (+27.6%), from which…

  • those last seen 5 days ago : 84/307 (27.4%) for 108.1pts (+35.2%)
  • over 7f : 63/248 (25.4%) for 73.69pts (+29.7%)
  • 5 yr olds are 40/154 (26%) for 46.23pts (+30%)

AND…5 yr olds racing over 7f, 5 days after their last outing in which they either won or were beaten by less than 3 lengths = 5/15 (33.3% SR) for 17.82pts (+118.8% ROI)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Mossys Lodge @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & BetVictor at 6.35pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.25 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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