Stat of the Day, 10th February 2018

Friday’s Result :

4.45 Chelmsford : Volpone Jelois @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Tracked leader, driven to challenge over 2f out, stayed on same pace approaching final furlong…

We end another successful week with Saturday’s…

4.50 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 2m handicap hurdle on soft ground worth £4,549 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was a winner over 3m in his final Point to Point race before starting his career under rules with three straight wins, all at 2m/2m0.5f on soft or heavy at Class 4 under today’s jockey Harry Bannister.

So although his effort for a 4-timer is also a handicap debut, he should at least be accustomed to the race conditions.

His trainer, Harry Whittington, is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 12.12pts (+48.5% ROI) with handicap debutants and these include…

  • 21-150 days since last run : 7/20 (35%) for 17.12pts (+85.6%)
  • over hurdles : 4/18 (22.2%) for 1.09pts (+6%)
  • at Class 4 : 2/9 (22.2%) for 2.88pts (+32%)
  • on soft/heavy : 2/5 (40%) for 3.14pts (+62.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.55pts (+318.2%)

That stat re: LTO winners isn’t really a surprise, as Harry’s LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 11.46pts (+81.8% ROI) in handicaps just since the start of 2017!

And, since 2013 in UK handicap hurdle contests, horses who won a Novice hurdle last time out in the previous 90 days, went on to score again on 162 of 893 (18.1%) for 146pts (+16.4%), including…

  • on handicap debut : 66/361 (18.3%) for 78.44pts (+21.7%)
  • 31-90 dslr : 54/304 (17.8%) for 95.04pts (+31.3%)
  • on soft ground : 40/226 (17.7%) for 40.1pts (+17.7%)
  • and here at Warwick : 5/23 (21.7%) for 10.54pts (+45.8%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.50 Warwick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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