Stat of the Day, 15th February 2018

Wednesday’s Result :

2.40 Towcester : Grand Introduction @ 5/2 BOG PU at 7/4 Prominent on outside, lost place before 5th, closed next, blundered and dropped to rear 7th, mistake next, blundered 12th, pulled up before 13th…

Next up is Thursday’s…

2.45 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG

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A Class 3, 2m4.5f handicap chase on soft ground worth £8,837 to the winner…

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding won this race last year off a mark (132) just 2lbs lower than today, but that was on heavy ground and today’s going is expected to be a little easier underfoot. To date, he has 2 wins and 3 places from 7 on soft ground, 3 wins and a place from 5 in fields of 5 to 8 runners and 2 wins from 3 at this trip, so conditions look ideal for him.

His win in this race last year makes him 1 from 1 over course and distance and none of his rivals have won over track nor trip, never mind both!

His trainer Caroline Bailey is 21/97 (21.65% SR) for 30.98pts (+31.9% ROI) here at Leicester since 2009 and these include…

  • handicappers : 17/68 (25%) for 27.74pts (+40.8%)
  • chasers : 16/66 (24.2%) for 40.76pts (+61.8%)
  • at trips of 2m4.5f to 2m7.5f : 14/59 (23.7%) for 40.4pts (+68.5%)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 17/40 (42.5%) for 33.69pts (+84.2%)
  • and 2017/18  :6/13 (46.2%) for 12.2pts (+93.8%)

Caroline Bailey / 2009-18 / Leicester / handicap chasers / priced at 5-1 and shorter over 2m4.5f to 2m7.5f = 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 17.27pts (+101.6% ROI), with 2017/18 showing 2 winners from 3 966.6%) for 8.33pts (+277.6%)

This horse is also a son of the mighty Midnight Legend and longer-term readers of my stuff will know of my fondness of this sire, mainly because his offspring win races and generate profit! One of my more generalised Midnight Legend micro-systems is at play here today and goes as follows…

UK NH jumps / 1m7f to 3m1f / good ground or softer / Class 2 to 4 / September to March / 5 to 8 yr olds / ran in past 8 months, but has had at least 3 weeks rest.

That’s not as complicated in practice as it is in print and since the start of 2013, it has thrown up 129 winners from 705 (18.3% SR) runners from 281.48pts (+39.9% ROI), with the following subsets of data relevant today…

  • handicaps : 92/480 (19.2%) for 222.85pts (+46.4%)
  • males : 72/398 (18.1%) for 160.42pts (+40.3%)
  • chasers : 43/245 (17.6%) for 71.55pts (+29.2%)
  • soft ground : 50/238 (21%) for 130.73pts (+54.9%)
  • Class 3 : 51/199 (25.6%) for 203.2pts (+102.1%)
  • OR of 123 to 137 : 34/131 (26%) for 108.59pts (+82.9%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 12.10am on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.45 Leicester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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