Stat of the Day, 17th February 2018

Friday’s Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Oregon Gift @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra late on…

Next up is Saturday’s…

2.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Brother Tiger @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 4, 5f A/W handicap on polytrack worth £5,531 to the winner…

Why?

One of just two course and distance winners in the race, this 9 yr old gelding has won 6 of 29 (20.7% SR) A/W contests to date, including…

  • 5/22 at 5f, 5/21 in fields of 8-11 and 4/13 off a mark of 61-80
  • 5/12 here at Lingfield and 4/10 in Class 4 races worth less than £6,000
  • 4/8 over C&D, 4/8 at odds of 4/1 and shorter and 2/5 in February

His trainer David Griffiths has saddled up 12 winners from 78 (15.4% SR) in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield since the start of 2012, from which…

  • Class 4/5 runners are 10/37 927%) for 34.46pts (+93.1%)
  • over 5/6 furlongs : 8/31 (25.8%) for 30.15pts (+97.3%)
  • Class 4/5 runners over 5/6 furlongs are 8/18 (44.4%%) for 43.1pts (+239.7%)
  • and Class 4 runners at 5f : 5/9 (55.6%) for 25.7pts (+285.3%)

And since the start of 2015, David’s runners racing again just 3 to 10 days after their last run are 23/118 (19.5% SR) for 28.6pts (+34.3% ROI), including…

  • handicappers : 22/109 (20.2%) for 33.6pts (+30.8%)
  • those unplaced LTO are 13/76 (17.1%) for 21.6pts (+28.4%)
  • those racing over 5f are 11/39 (28.2%) for 28.2pts (+72.4%)

AND…5f handicappers who were unplaced LTO 3 to 10 days earlier are 5/22 (22.7%) for 11.8pts (+53.7% ROI)

The final piece of the jigsaw comes from our very own industry-leading interactive race card, which tells me that in fields of 8-11 over 5f on the A/W here at Lingfield, it is most profitable to back runners who race prominently or lead. Our boy likes to be up with the pace and getting drawn in stall 1 shouldn’t hurt his chances either.

…all of which points to…a 1pt win bet on Brother Tiger @ 4/1 BOG which was available from a half dozen firms at 6.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.20 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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