Stat of the Day, 19th February 2018

Saturday’s Result :

2.20 Lingfield : Brother Tiger @ 4/1 BOG (= 3.4/1 after 15p R4) WON at 7/4 Made all, driven over 1f out, ridden and ran on well inside final furlong to win by a length and three quarters…

We start the new week with Monday’s…

7.50 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Lacan @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 1m A/W handicap on polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has finished 141 in hos last three outings, all over this course and distance and won 23 days ago under today’s jockey, just as he did three starts ago (a different jockey rode the defeat).

So far on the A/W, Lacan is…

  • 4/15 over a mile, 3/9 at Kempton and 3/8 over course and distance
  • 2/2 with today’s jockey, both over course and distance and he’s 1/1 in Class 4 races worth over £6,000.

Trainer Brett Johnson isn’t the most famous, nor does he have lots of runners, but of his nine runners over the past month, 5 have made the frame with three going on to win and backing all his runners since the start of 2017 would give you 11 winners from 88 (12.5% SR) and 53.82pts profit at an ROI of 61.2%, including…

  • in handicaps : 9/68 (13.2%) for 60.8pts (+89.5%)
  • on the A/W : 8/57 (14%) for 43.3pts (+76%), all on polytrack
  • males : 10/51 (19.6%) for 84.9pts (+166.4%)
  • 21-75 days since last run : 8/47 (17%) for 55.34pts (+117.8%)
  • 1m to 1m2f : 8/33 (24.2%) for 89.91pts (+272.5%)
  • at Kempton : 5/32 (15.6%) for 27.6pts (+86.2%)
  • ridden by Callum Shepherd : 5/27 (18.5%) for 33.6pts (+124.4%)
  • at Class 4 : 3/19 (15.8%) for 5.9pts (+31%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/8 (25%) for 14.24pts (+178.1%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Lacan @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Betway & SkyBet at 6.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.50 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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