Stat of the Day, 20th February 2018

Monday’s Result :

7.50 Kempton : Lacan @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on to chase winner towards finish, beaten by half a length…

And we’ll crack on with Tuesday’s…

4.40 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lunar Flow @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 4, 3m0.5f handicap chase on heavy ground worth £4,809 to the winner…

Why?

Two wins and two places from his last seven over fences, all in handicap company, he has a win and a place from two heavy ground runs and is two from two over a 3m trip. He’s been here to Wetherby just the once before, but did finish as a runner-up over a longer 3m1.5f.

His trainer Jamie Snowden is having a decent winter with 14 winners from 51 (27.5% SR) generating profits of 10.26pts (+20.1% ROI) over the last three months with a Class 4 record of 9/31 (29%) for 10.78pts (+34.8%). And of Jamie’s runners over that period, today’s jockey Gavin Sheehan has ridden 13 winners from 39 (33.3%) for 17.21pts (+44.1%).

And not only has Gavin ridden more than his fair share of winners for Jamie of late, he’s got a decent record here at Wetherby too with a 20.3% strike rate acquired via 13 wins from 64.

It could be very tough going out there too, but Jamie Snowden’s heavy ground handicappers are 6/42 (14.3% SR) for 13.2pts (+31.5% ROI) since 2013, including…

• at 2m3.5f to 3m1.5f (what I’d call mid-distance) : 6/33 (18.2%) for 22.2pts (+67.4%)
• Class 4 : 5/27 (18.5%) for 25.6pts (+94.9%)
• Chasers : 4/20 (20%) for 29.27ts (+146.4%)

AND…Class 4 Chasers over 2m3.5f to 3m1.5f  = 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 38.27pts (+347.9% ROI)

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Lunar Flow @ 4/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 6.10pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.40 Wetherby

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!