Race of the Day – 22 February 2018

Race of the Day – 15:45 Southwell

Foolaad makes it onto The Shortlist with an impressive score of 11, having four sections of green and the only negative (red section) being field size. I am happy to completely ignore this, however, as he has been successful in fields of eight runners so this has no relevance for me.

He is currently short in the market at 7/4 but looks very well suited to conditions in this five-furlong dash on the all-weather at Southwell.

Foolaad has been in excellent form this winter with three course and distance wins in a row. He has been steadily rising up the handicap because of this and now runs from a mark of 95, however, he was a more comfortable winner last time out than the distance suggests so I am confident the extra four pounds he carries here today won’t be enough to stop him.

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Trainer Roy Bowring has a useful record here at Southwell over the past year. He’s managed five winners (19.23%) and ten places (38.46%) from 26 runners, for level stakes profits of 3.85 and 3.34 respectively.

He has an excellent record with last time out winners. From his last 17 such runners, he’s had six winners (35.29%) and nine places (52.94%), for level stakes profits of 7.85 and 10.07 respectively and an Impact Value of 1.87.

The Instant Expert report highlights the good showing of Foolaad and shows how well suited he is to this race. It also confirms that he is four pounds higher in the handicap than for his last win.

Another who comes out well on this report is Erissimus Maximus, who also has four sections of green and may be worth a second look at a price of 13/2. It should be noted that he is 14 pounds higher than for his last victory.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have the best record, with 17.83% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 26.56 and an Impact Value of 1.36.

For a five-furlong sprint, there doesn’t appear to be a real front-runner in the race. Foolaad is usually quite handy during his races and I would expect him to be right up there through the early stages of the race again in this one.

Click here for the 15:45 at Southwell.

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