Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2018

Wednesday’s Result :

5.10 Ludlow : War Creation @ 9/4 BOG PU at 9/2 In touch, weakened before 4 out, tailed off and pulled up before 3 out…

Next up is Thursday’s…

5.55 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roy’s Legacy @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 6, 5f apprentices’ handicap sprint on polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner…

Why?

This 9 year old was a winner over this 5f trip at Wolverhampton when last seen 10 days ago, taking his A/W record over the minimum distance to an impressive 15 wins from 61.

His trainer Shaun Harris does well here at Chelmsford, notching up 10 winners from 69 (14.5% SR) for 39.2pts (+56.8% ROI) profit, from which…

• handicappers are 10/66 (15.2%) for 42.2pts (+63.9%)
• those who have raced in the previous 30 days are 9/46 (19.6%) for 57pts (+124%)
• at Class 6 : 8/41 (19.5%) for 49.5pts (+120.7%)
• at odds of 5/2 to 12/1 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 46.72pts (+137.4%)
• over 5/6 furlongs : 6/34 (17.6%) for 29.56pts (+86.9%)
• at this 5f course and distance : 3/15 (20%) for 18.56pts (+123.7%)
• LTO winners are 4/8 (50%) for 32.3pts (+403.7%)
• and in apprentice races : 2/4 950%) for 10.73pts (+268.25%)

The above stat about LTO winners, albeit from a small sample size, doesn’t really surprise me, as more generally since 2013, Shaun’s LTO winners are 23/106 (21.7% SR) for 101pts profit at a very attractive ROI of some 95.3%! And in respect of this race, those 106 runners are…

• 23/103 (22.3%) for 104pts (+101%) in handicaps
• 23/97 (23.7%) for 110pts (+113.4%) within 30 days of that LTO win
• 18/51 (35.3%) for 104.1pts (+204.1%) at Class 6
• 10/47 (21.3%) for 35.5pts (+75.6%) on the A/W
• and 10/22 (45.5%) for 56.9pts (+258.6%) over a 5f trip.

…from which : Class 6 handicappers running within 30 days of an LTO win are 18/47 (38.3% SR) for 108.1pts (+230% ROI), including…

• on the A/W : 8/23 (34.8%) for 71.3pts (+297.1%)
• over 5f : 9/15 (60%) for 51.4pts (+342.6%)
• and over 5f on the A/W : 4/8 (50%) for 25.86pts (+323.3%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Roy’s Legacy @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.35pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.55 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!