Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2018

Thursday’s Result :

5.55 Chelmsford : Roy’s Legacy @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 I’ll add the report later…

Next up is Friday’s…

4.50 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Thomas Patrick @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 3, 3m6.5f handicap on soft ground worth £15,640 to the winner…

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding with 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes in his last five starts, who jumped superbly and looked a natural when winning on his chasing debut last time out winning by 5 lengths at Chepstow three weeks ago on heavy ground.

That was not only his chase debut, but also the first time he’d been ridden by today’s jockey Richard Johnson. He’s also got past wins here and on soft and heavy ground in favour too, as well has having the benefit of being trained by Tom Lacey, whose runners are 50/256 (19.5% SR) for 203.3pts (+79.4% ROI) since the start of 2016, including…

  • males : 40/207 (19.3%) for 200.2pts (+96.7%)
  • handicaps : 26/107 (24.3%) for 77.2pts (+72.2%)
  • on Soft ground : 15/77 (19.5%) for 41.7pts (+54.2%)
  • raced in past three weeks : 17/67 (25.4%) for 82.7pts (+123.5%)
  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 15/65 (23.1%) for 42.4pts (+65.2%)
  • Class 3 : 7/45 (15.6%) for 48.9pts (+31.9%)
  • Exeter : 4/15 (26.7%) for 11.66pts (+77.7%)

Whilst more generally, since the start of 2014 in UK Class 2/3 Handicap Chases, horses priced shorter than 8/1 running 6-30 days after winning a Novice Chase last time out are 79/291 (27.2% SR) for 62.4pts (+21.5% ROI), from which…

  • won by 5L or more LTO : 45/130 (34.6%) for 57.4pts (+44.2%)
  • on Soft : 27/92 (29.4%) for 49.03pts (+53.3%)
  • 3m2.5f to 3m6.5f : 3/12 (25%) for 10pts (+83.3%)
  • and at Exeter : 4/11 (36.4%) for 14pts (+126.9%)

…suggesting…a 1pt win bet on Thomas Patrick @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.50 Exeter

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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