Stat of the Day, 26th February 2018

Saturday’s Result :

3.50 Lingfield : Goring @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Led briefly, soon steadied into mid-division on inside, switched right and headway on outside over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, led at post to win by a nose…

Next up is Monday’s…

3.15 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Skipthescales @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 4, 3m0.5f handicap hurdle on heavy ground worth £4,874 to the winner…

Why?

A 6yr old gelding whose recent form of 1431 suggests he’s in good nick and was a winner at Newcastle last time out. That was 27 days ago on soft ground where he prevailed by three lengths, whilst wearing blinkers for the first time and was being ridden by Adam Nicol for the first time. Both Adam and the blinkers are retained today!

Since the start of 2013 in UK class 4 handicap hurdles on heavy ground, male runners who were winners by 3 to 15 lengths LTO are 158/560 (28.2% SR) for 84.3pts (+15.1% ROI) and these include…

• those priced below 10/1 are 134/492 (27.2%) for 76.5pts (+15.6%)
• those with at least 20 days rest, but have raced in the last 10 months (ie rested not rusted) are 62/225 (27.6%) for 86.6pts (+38.5%)
• whilst those fitting both of the above are 61/204 (29.9%) for 82.9pts (+40.6%)

Furthermore, during the same 2013-18 period, today’s trainer Philip Kirby’s NH handicappers running during February to April are 29/187 (15.5% SR) for 89.8pts (+48% ROI), from which…

• hurdlers are 24/152 (15.8%) for 100.2pts (+65.9%)
• in February : 12/71 (16.9%) for 46.5pts (+65.5%)
• at Class 4 : 13/83 (15.7%) for 37.3pts (+44.9%)
• over 2m7f to 3m2f : 13/40 (32.5%) for 88.3pts (+220.8%)

And more specifically, since the start of 2017, Philip’s heavy ground NH handicappers are 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 38.74pts (+129.1% ROI), including…

• hurdlers at 5/19 (26.3%) for 36.2pts (+190.3%)
• Class 4 runners are 4/18 922.2%) for 27.5pts (+152.9%)

…whilst Class 4 hurdlers racing over 2m4f and beyond are 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 33.7pts (+481.6% ROI)…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Skipthescales @ 7/2 BOG which was available from more than a half dozen firms at 5.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.15 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!