Stat of the Day, 27th February 2018

Monday’s Result :

3.15 Ayr : Skipthescales @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 11/4 In rear, outpaced after 4 out and well beaten (24L)…

Next up is Tuesday’s…

3.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Emenem @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 1m2f handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £7,246 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner over course and distance two starts ago, but was subsequently beaten by 1.5 lengths last time out stepped up in class nine weeks ago. Back down ion grade and returned to more favourable conditions, I’d expect him to go well again.

He currently has four wins and four placed finishes from eleven runs on the A/W and with today’s contest in mind, his record in those eleven starts include…

  • 3 wins and 3 places from 8 on polytrack
  • 3 wins and 2 places from 6 going left handed
  • 4 wins from 6 priced below 9/2
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 5 at Class 3
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 at 1m2f
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 at Lingfield
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 over course and distance
  • and 2 wins from 2 races of just 1-7 runners.

Trainer Simon Dow only had three runners in the last week, but with two winners he can be classed as being in some kind of decent form and will be hopeful of improving an already good record on this track, which has seen him land 25 winners from 166 runners (15.1% SR) for 169.2pts (+101.9% ROI) on the polytrack here at Lingfield since the start of 2015.

Furthermore, since the start of 2013, his A/W handicappers taking a drop in class are 22/126 (17.5% SR) for 45.25pts (+35.9% ROI), from which…

  • those dropping down 1 class are 18/103 (17.5%) for 53.6pts (+52.1%)
  • here at Lingfield : 12/54 (22.2%) for 43pts (+79.7%)
  • and those ridden by Tom Marquand : 2/6 (33.3%) for 22.42pts (+373.7%)

…giving uss…a 1pt win bet on Emenem @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Betfair, Betway & Paddy Power at 4.50pm on Monday, whilst Bet365 were a shade better at 3/1 BOG for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.00 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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