Stat of the Day, 28th February 2018

Tuesday’s Result :

3.00 Lingfield : Emenem @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 15/8 Led briefly, chased leader, pushed along over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, led final 110 yards, headed and no extra final 50 yards and beaten by 0.75 lengths…

Next up is Wednesday’s…

6.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Tommy G @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 5, 5f handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £4,011 to the winner…


Trainer Jim Goldie appears to have got his string of horses finely tuned of late and in in A/W handicaps over the last 60 days, 14 of his 26 runners (53.9%) have made the frame with 8 of them (30.8% SR) going on to win, rewarding followers with 15pts profit at a healthy ROI of some 57.9%, yet over the last 4 weeks those figures are even better, with 5 placers from 11 (45.5%) including 4 winners (36.4% SR) that have been worth 8.77pts (+79.7% ROI) profit to a 1pt level stake.

More specifically, he’s had a very good winter on the Tapeta here at Newcastle, a feat not many of his rivals can claim! In the past 15 weeks in handicaps here at Gosforth Park, his charges are 14 from 42 (33.33% SR) for profits of 46pts at a very attractive ROI of 109.5% and these include (of relevance today, of course)…

  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter 14/34 (41.2%) for 54pts (+158.8%)
  • males are 10/27 (37%) for 27.8pts (+102.9%)
  • ridden by Phil Dennis : 8/25 (32%) for 26.7pts (+106.8%)
  • over 5f : 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.8pts (+73.5%)
  • at class 5 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 11.9pts (+107.8%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 4/10 (40%) for 32.36pts (+323.6%)

A look at the pace and draw data on the Geegeez racecard for this race, suggests a prominent racing style suits runners over this course and distance, whilst in fields the size of today’s contest, a higher draw is beneficial. According to that data, we’ve got stall 8 of 8 and based on past running styles of all the competitors in this contest, we’re expecting him to sit in around 3rd or 4th position, so we’re high and prominent!

If I had the skills of Steve, who does an excellent job illustrating his Race of the Day feature (which has already had a 12/1 winner this week!), I’d show you the graphics, but trust me they’re there!

…which all points to…a 1pt win bet on Tommy G @ 11/4 BOG which was available in half a dozen places at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.15 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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