Race of the Day- 1 March 2018

Race of the Day – 20:00 Kempton

Believe It makes it onto The Shortlist today at Kempton with a decent score of 13, having four sections of green and one of amber.

He looks well suited to conditions in this one in what is a small field handicap over a mile on the all-weather.

The current form of Believe It hasn’t been great, with just two second placed finishes in his last six races. He has won over course and distance four times though, and is 5/8 at Kempton overall for a level stakes profit of 37.25, so I am hopeful that a return to his apparent favoured track will bring out the best in him.

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Richard Hughes has a really good record here at Kempton over the past year. From 68 runners, he’s had 12 winners (17.65%) and 25 places (36.76%), for level stakes profits of 26.44 and 26.11 respectively and an Impact Value of 1.76.

Claimer Stephen Cummins also had a good record here at Kempton. Over the past year, he’s had four winners (36.36%) and five places (45.45%) from 11 runners, for level stakes profits of 28.25 33.81 respectively and an Impact Value of 3.63.

The Instant Expert report highlights the good showing of Believe It, and shows that he is just the four pounds higher than for his last win.

His record at the course which I mentioned earlier really stands out and he looks far better suited to this race than the rest of the field.

The Pace report doesn’t have a huge sample to go on, but prominent runners have the best record, with 20.59% of them going on to win the race for a level stakes profit of 7.04 and an Impact Value of 1.44.

Although Believe It has been slowly away a couple of times recently, he is at his best when leading and the small field here today should help with that. If he gets out quickly and get a lead then he may prove tough to peg bac

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