LINGFIELD – MARCH 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £8.50 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)
Saturday’s Placepot permutation at Lingfield:
Leg 1 (1.45): 8 (Sea Fox), 1 (Chevalier) & 7 (Franco’s Secret)
Leg 2 (2.20): 9 (Attain), 6 (Yensir) & 3 (Slowfoot)
Leg 3 (2.55): 1 (Encore D’Or), 2 (Atletico) & 8 (Brother Tiger)
Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Bengali Boys) & 3 (Headway)
Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Roy’s Legacy) & 4 (Blastofmagic)
Leg 6 (4.35): 6 (Noteworthy) & 7 (Porrima)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday – please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.45: I should make the point that if Lingfield is abandoned, I will be offering a reduced service (including a Placepot permutation) at one of the other meetings if they pass their respective inspections at 8.00. Upwards and onward in positive mode by informing that four-year-olds have won four of the six contests thus far and there is plenty of money in the positive queue for SEA FOX at the time of writing though at present, it’s not a ‘realistic’ investment against what the bookmakers are generally offering (9/2) this morning. It will be interesting to see how the potential support develops during the course of the morning. With CHEVALIER and FRANCO’S SECRET boasting an aggregate of eight wins between them here at Lingfield via a 35% strike rate, I’m adding both entries in my Permutation plans.
Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 11/4 favourite was the first market leader to oblige at the sixth time of asking.
Record of the course winners in the opening race:
2.20: ATTAIN has finished in the three in 18/31 races here at Lingfield, stats which include six victories, with two successes gained over course and distance. Archie Watson’s record is second to none relating to today’s represented trainers at the tack whereby the 8/1 (each way) odds (generally available at the time of writing) make plenty of appeal. Others of interest include YENSIR and SLOWFOOT who represents the in form yard of Suzi Best.
Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last five renewals.
Record of the course winners in the second event:
2.55: There are worse outsiders on the card than BROTHER TIGER I’ll wager and the 20/1 odds on offer proved too big for yours truly to resist this morning. The fact that the quote was generally available hardly installs confidence but that said, his six victories at the venue are backed up by three silver medal efforts which suggests that the price is worth taking, if only to ‘loose change’. More realistic winners include ENCORE D’OR and ATLETICO (preferred in that order) I guess but do they equal the each way value of the tentative selection?
Favourite factor: Market leaders come to the gig on a four timer with just four renewals having been contested to date.
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
2/15—Boom The Grom
3.30: Richard Fahey’s record here this season is not good (see full stats below) but Richard’s raider BENGALI BOYS offers value for money in a race which should not prove difficult to win, not by ‘Listed’ standards anyway. HEADWAY (William Haggas has won two of the last three renewals when represented) is the fairly obvious danger and I anticipate this pair battling out the finish with a few lengths to spare over their rivals.
Favourite factor: Favourites have secured half of the contests during the last decade.
4.00: The 5/1 quote by Paddy Power for ROY’S LEGACY appears to be a ‘bet to nothing’ from an each way angle, given his 18/27 ratio in terms of finishing ‘in the three’ at this vebnue down the years. Those stats include six victories (all over course and distance) whereby this 20 time winner has to be taken seriously today. Others of interest include BLASTOFMAGIC and (to a fashion) Camino.
Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last four renewals was returned at just 7/2, stats which include two successful favourites.
Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg:
1/10—Dreams Of Glory
4.35: NOTEWORTHY and PORRIMA look fairly safe propositions from a Placepot perspective, especially as their place odds on the exchanges will be short to say the least whereby ‘laying off’ facilities will be in place if the potential dividend is looking good before flag fall.
Favourite factor: Both of the market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, stats which include one (4/7) winner.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track hits season and then their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both count:
3 runners—Tony Carroll (1/22 – loss of 5 points) – 28/241 – loss of 82
3—Richard Hughes (0/4) – 12/116 – loss of 73
3—Mark Johnston (4/15 – loss of 4) – 54/302 – loss of 55
2—John Bridger (2/20 – loss of 6) – 16/255 – loss of 102
2—Robert Cowell (4/7 +3) – 16/82 – loss of 7
2—Seamus Durack (0/3) – 12/44 +19
2—Richard Fahey (0/11) – 25/209 – loss of 45
2—Gary Moore (2/16 – loss of 10) – 30/281 – loss of 90
2—Mick Quinn (0/5) – 1/34 – level profit/loss during the last 5 years
2—Archie Watson (6/19 +22) – 13/62 +19)
+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
53 declared runners
General overview – Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newcastle: £127.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Chelmsford – No history for this meeting