Stat of the Day, 5th March 2018

Saturday’s Result :

7.15 Chelmsford : Excellent George @ 3/1 BOG WON at 7/2 Tracked leaders, every chance from over 1f out, and throughout final furlong, hard driven to lead close home, getting up by a short head.

We start the new week with Monday’s…

3.45 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Remiluc @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 2, 2m3.5f handicap hurdle on heavy ground worth £12,512 to the winner…


This 9 yr old has won three of fifteen handicap hurdle contests to date which is a decent enough return to make me initially interested. Of those fifteen races, he is…

  • 3 from 14 wearing a tongue tie
  • 3 from 13 going left handed
  • 3 wins and 2 places from nine soft or heavy ground runs
  • 2 from 6 with today’s jockey Harry Reed
  • 2 wins and a place from five, 16-30 days after his last run
  • 1 from 1 on heavy…

…all of which are, of course, applicable today.

Now I’ll turn to his trainer, Chris Gordon, who by anyone’s standards isn’t actually what you’d call prolific, but blindly backing his handicap hurdlers has been a profitable venture in nine of the last ten years including 2018 so far. In fact, backing all of them would have given you 88 winners from 760 bets and whilst an 11.6% strike rate isn’t earth shattering, the returns of 309.6pts represent some 40.7% of stakes invested!

Of those 760 handicap hurdlers…

  • males are 71/607 (11.7%) for 295.7pts (+48.7%)
  • 16-45 days since last run : 49/420 (11.7%) for 282.9pts (+67.3%)
  • from March to September inclusive : 57/273 (15.3%) for 279.9pts (+75%)
  • 9 yr olds are 12/67 (17.9%) for 60.7pts (+90.6%)
  • whilst today’s jockey Harry Reed is 4/15 (26.7%) for 38pts (+253%)

I fully appreciate that 70-odd bets a year from one angle might well be too much for some/many of you, so if you wanted a less frequent micro based around these horses, you could try…

Chris Gordon / handicap hurdlers / males / March to September / 6-30 days since run and this gives 38 winners from 181 for 251.1pts vastly improving both the SR (to 21%) and the ROI (to 138.7%) from our original stat. Of these 181 from the new micro, 4-9 yr olds are 37/169 (21.9%) for 259.34pts (+153.5%) with 8 winners from 29 (27.6% SR) producing 33.26pts (+114.7% ROI) since the start of 2016 alone!

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Remiluc @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available from Betfred, Betway, Skybet & Totesport at 5.35pm on Sunday, whilst those able to do so, could take 10/3 BOG from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.45 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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