Race of the Day – 6 March 2018

Race of the Day – 16:20 Southwell

The Trainer Snippets report shows that Declan Carroll has a particularly good record with his middle distance runners on the flat. From his last 158 such runners, he’s managed to have 28 winners (17.72%) and 57 places (36.08%), for level stakes profits of 81.30 and 66.39 respectively and an Impact Value of 1.69.

He runs Monsieur Jimmy in a one-mile handicap on the all-weather at Southwell today.

When looking at the form of Monsieur Jimmy it is clear that he is a lot better on the artificial surfaces than he is on turf, and he’s actually 0-27 races on the grass.

He was a ready winner last time out over course and distance and races in this one with an extra six pounds for that win.

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Declan Carroll has a good overall record here at Southwell for the past five years. During that time, he’s had 20 winners (21.28%) and 34 places (36.17%) from 94 runners, for level stakes profits of 30.50 and 20.91 respectively and an Impact Value of 1.74.

His record with runners on the all-weather courses is also over 2% higher than his overall strike rate.

Claimer Ger O’Neill appears to like riding here at Southwell. Over the past year, he’s had four winners (28.57%) and five places (35.71%) from 14 runners, for level stakes profit of 19.50 and 19.70 respectively and an Impact Value of 2.41.

The Pace report shows that prominent runners here over this distance have the best strike rate, with 11.24% of them going on to win the race.

The tactics of Monsieur Jimmy were changed last time out, instead of being held up he was ridden prominently and this had a marked effect. I would be surprised if O’Neill didn’t opt for the same tactics this time around as well and he will hopefully be good enough to make it his second win in a row.

Click here for the 16:20 at Southwell.

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