Stat of the Day, 7th March 2018

Tuesday’s Result :

2.20 Lingfield : Something Lucky @ 2/1 BOG WON at 11/8 Restless in stalls, dwelt tracked leader, joined leader over 1f out, pushed along to lead narrowly inside final furlong, ran on to win by a head.

Next up is Wednesday’s…

3.40 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Cabernet D’Alene @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 2m3.5f handicap hurdle on good to soft ground worth £6,238 to the winner…


This 6 yr old gelding is 4 from 9 over hurdles over the last 12 months, handles pretty much any sort of ground and although now trying 2m3.5f for the first time, is 2 from 3 at 2m3f over the last years including a win by 11 lengths last time out (7 weeks ago) on heavy ground, so stamina won’t be the issue here.

He’s trained by Nick Williams (under-rated in my opinion), who is having the time of it with his handicap hurdlers of late with 13 winners from 72 (18.1% SR) generating profits of 80.2pts (+111.4% ROI) since the start of 2017 with the following of relevance today…

  • 4-6 yr olds are 11/55 (20%) for 91.26pts (+165.9%)
  • those last seen 16-90 days ago are 12/53 (22.6%) for 90.3pts (+170.4%)
  • over trips of 2m to 2m4f : 8/33 (24.2%) for 83.4pts (+252.7%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 5/15 (33.3%) for 79.4pts (+529.1%)

Now, Lizzie Kelly & Chester Williams are Nick’s usual go-to jockeys in these races, but today’s deputy Sam Twiston-Davies is (a) no mug, (b) 1 from 1 of those 72 runners above, (c) in great form : 5 wins and 4 places from 16 rides over the last two weeks and (d) very adept around this track, winning 25 of 94 (26.6% SR) here at Fontwell since 2012.

And lastly (for now!), this horse was sired by Day Flight, whose offspring are 20/81 (24.7% SR) for 29.8pts (+36.8% ROI) since the start of 2015…

…but for now, it’s just…a 1pt win bet on Cabernet D’Alene @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betway & Skybet at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.40 Fontwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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