Stat of the Day, 9th March 2018

Thursday’s Runner was…

6.45 Newcastle : Montague @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Led, ridden over 1f out, kept on and headed towards finish.

And now we turn to Friday’s…

3.25 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Charmant @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 2m handicap hurdle (4yo+) on soft ground worth £5,003 to the winner…

Why?

A likeable and consistent 6 yr old gelding who should relish the conditions on offer today. Five top three finishes (including 2 wins) from his least seven outings over a 13 month period suggests he’ll be there or thereabouts once more again today and of the two unplaced efforts, one was a 3 length defeat in a tight contest and the other was up two grades at Class 2.

In these last 7 races, he has won here at Ayr, he has over over today’s trip, he has won on both soft and heavy ground, both wins were under today’s jockey Steven Fox who is very good for his 5lb claim here, he has won at Class 4 and both wins came wearing a hood and his last visit to this track was three starts ago when he won here over course and distance under Steven Fox at this grade on heavy ground wearing a hood!

He’s trained by James Ewart who has had 2 winners and 2 placers from his half dozen runners over the past fortnight, whilst here at Ayr his runners priced at 6/1 and shorter are 5/12 (41.67% SR) for 12.56pts (+104.7% ROI) profit over the last 12 months.

More longer-term / generally, blindly backing his handicap hurdlers has been a profitable venture over the last few years. In fact, had you backed all such entrants since the start of 2015, you’d be looking at 35 winners from 193 (18.1% SR) for 145.22pts (+75.2% ROI) profit with the following datasets of relevance today…

  • using a jockey claiming 5lbs : 18/83 (21.7%) for 94.75pts (+114.2%)
  • at 2m to 2m1.5f : 15/81 (18.5%) for 52.87pts (+65.3%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 16/72 (22.2%) for 49.62pts (+68.9%)
  • on Soft : 7/46 (15.2%) for 38.35pts (+83.4%)
  • ridden by Steven Fox : 7/35 (20%) for 67.12pts (+191.8%)
  • ridden by a 5lb claimer over 2m to 2m1.5f : 10/32 (31.25%) for 77.7pts (+242.8%)
  • ridden by Steven Fox claiming 5lbs over 2m to 2m1.5f : 6/14 (42.9%) for 73.61pts (+525.8%)
  • and here at Ayr : 6/23 (26.1%) for 23.54pts (+102.3%)

And a final layer of confidence is gleaned from the fact that since the start of 2017, handicap jumpers sired by Balko are 11/41 (26.8% SR) for 10.3pts (+25.1% ROI) profit on ground deemed soft or softer, with those racing at the shorter trips (ie no further than 2m1f) winning 8 of 21 (38.1% SR) for 22.82pts at an ROI of some 108.6%.

…all pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Charmant @ 3/1 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.50pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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