Stat of the Day, 13th March 2018

Monday’s Runner was…

3.20 Plumpton : Ballyheigue Bay @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 Jumped right at times, led, ridden and headed approaching last, kept on one pace .

Next up is Tuesday’s…

8.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Windforpower @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 6, 5f handicap sprint (3yo+) on tapeta worth £3,105 to the winner…

Why?

A 8yr old gelding who is already the veteran of some 124 races. Yes, 124 of them, winning 15 (12.1%) for them, but it’s on the artificial surfaces that he prospers, making the frame in 23 of 43 (53.5%) attempts winning 9 (20.9% SR) of them and in respect of today’s contest, those 43 A/W runs include…

  • 9 wins, 9 places from 29 at this 5f trip
  • 6 wins, 12 places from 27 at Class 6
  • 4 wins, 7 places from 22 here on the tapeta at Newcastle
  • 8 wins, 7 places from 21 when priced at 6/1 and shorter
  • 4 wins, 7 places from 19 over course and distance
  • 4 wins, 7 places from 18 when rated (OR) 51 to 60
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 10 wearing a visor
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 7 under jockey Ben Curtis
  • and 2 wins, 2 places from 6 in March

All of which suggest he’ll be on the premises once more again on Tuesday evening and as you’ve probably guessed, Ben Curtis will be in the saddle, aiming to improve his record of 11 placers (68.75%) from 16 rides here at Newcastle for trainer Tracy Waggott since the start of 2017.

Of the 16, he has ridden 4 winners (25% SR) for profits of 19.08pts at an ROI of 119.3%, all in handicap contests with all four winners coming from 12 (33.33%) efforts over this 5f course and distance with the 23.08pts profit equating to a 192.4% ROI.

13 of the 16 races were at Class 6 with 3 winners (23.1% SR) returning profits of 16.13pts (+124.1% ROI) and at Class 6 over 5f, the Waggott/Curtis has 3 winners and 4 placers from 9 with a win only profit of 20.13pts (+223.7% ROI)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Windforpower @ 4/1 BOG which was available from 10 Bet and SportPesa at 5.20pm on Monday, but Bet365 were offering a standout 6/1 BOG at that time for those able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.45 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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