Stat of the Day, 14th March 2018

Tuesday’s Runner was…

8.45 Newcastle : Windforpower @ 4/1 BOG (=3.2/1 after a 20p R4) WON at 5/2 Chased leading pair, hung left and went 2nd over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on to win more comfortably than the official one length margin might suggest.

And now we move on to Wednesday’s…

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Bernies Boy @ 10/3 BOG

A Class 5, 7f handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3,752 to the winner…

Why?

And an in-form 5 yr old gelding who likes to be kept busy. He comes here today for a sixth run in four weeks, having won twice and made the frame in the other three races during this period (13212) including a win two starts ago on his last visit to Wolverhampton nine days ago before just getting touched off by a head at Chelmsford four days ago.

His overall record on the All-Weather shows four wins and 6 further places from 17, so win and place percentages of 23.5% and 58.8% are very encouraging and these include of relevance today…

  • 3 wins, 4 places from 12 in cheekpieces
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 10 for trainer Phil McEntee
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 9 at Class 5
  • 3 wins, 5 places from 8 at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 8 under jockey Nicola Currie
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 7 within a week of his last run
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 5 in March
  • 1 win and 1 runner-up finish from 2 visits to Wolverhampton.

In these apprentice handicaps, jockey bookings are often a big factor in who wins the race and in the talented Nicola Currie, we’ve certainly got one of the better ones in this race and also in general. She’s having a great start to 2018, especially on the McEntee horses, where the partnership is currently worth 7 wins from 36 (19.4% SR) since the turn of the year for level stakes profits of 16.4pts at a decent ROI of some 45.6% and these include of note today…

  • in handicaps : 6/34 (17.7%) for 15.48pts (+45.5%)
  • at Classes 3 to 5 : 4/19 (21.1%) for 18.18pts (+95.7%)
  • Class 3 to 5 handicaps : 3/17 (17.7%) for 17.26pts (+101.6%)
  • over a 7f trip : 3/10 (30%) for 18.51pts (+185.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 2/8 (25%) for 6.37pts (+79.6%)
  • Class 3 to 5 handicaps over 7f : 2/6 (33.3%) for 20.04pts (+334.1%)
  • and here at Wolverhampton : 1/1 for 10.45pts

…all of which points to…a 1pt win bet on Bernies Boy @ 10/3 BOG which was available from Betfair, Hills & Paddy Power at 7.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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