Stat of the Day, 15th March 2018

Wednesday’s Runner was…

5.45 Wolverhampton : Bernies Boy @ 10/3 BOG  WON at 4/1 Tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to lead close home, winning by half a length.

And now we move on to Thursday’s…

3.45 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Itstimeforapint @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 4m handicap chase (5yo+) on heavy ground worth £7, 148 to the winner…

Why?

Well, he’s a 10 yr old in decent nick after wining over 3m5.5f at Bangor on heavy ground last time out under today’s jockey Derek Fox. That was 34 days ago, giving him ample time to rest ahead of a race his trainer, Lucinda Russell, seems to target and has actually won it in each of the last two years.

Her yard is thankfully emerging from a quiet spell and her last six runners have finished 232112, which is very encouraging ahead of a visit to a track where she has done really well generally rather than just this particular race.

In fact, since the start of 2012, her runners are 54/289 (18.7% SR) for 86pts (+29.8% ROI) here at Hexham and those figures include…

  • males at 50/235 (21.3% SR) for 107.1pts (+45.6%)
  • aged 6 to 12 yr old : 43/221 (19.5%) for 93.8pts (+42.4%)
  • handicappers are 37/196 (18.9%) for 72.9pts (+37.2%)
  • those who ran in the past five weeks : 34/155 (21.9%) for 107.7pts (+69.5%)
  • chasers are 23/125 (23.2%) for 66pts (+52.8%)
  • in March : 8/35 (22.9%) for 23.3pts (+66.5%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/23 (21.7%) for 17.6pts (+76.7%)

And if from all that data above you just wanted a micro system with around 10-15 bets a year, then 6-12 yo male HC chasers running within 5 weeks of their ast outing are 15/58 (25.9% SR) for 66pts (+113.7% ROI) with March runners winning 3 of 7 (42.9%) for 16.81pts (+240.1%) and LTO winners doubled up twice from 6 attempts (33.3%) for 20.09pts (+334.9%).

This is actually our boy’s second visit to this venue, as he came here in 2016 and won this race! He’s 2 from 3 on heavy ground over fences and was sired by Portrait Gallery, whose 10 yr old jumpers are 8/22 (36.4% SR) for 69.7pts (+316.8% ROI) since the start of 2016 and these 22 jumpers (all male chasers!) are…

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 34.7pts (+288.8%) in handicaps
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 27.85pts (309.4%) after a break of 26-45 days
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 43.6pts (+872%) on heavy ground.

…steering us inexporably towards…a 1pt win bet on Itstimeforapint @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Hills and a tleast half a dozen others at 6.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.45 Hexham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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