Stat of the Day, 17th March 2018

Friday’s Runner was…

11.30 Musselburgh : Nendrum @ 3/1 BOG  9th at 6/4 Led and set good pace, headed after 4 out, weakened rapidly before next, tailed off.

And we end the week with Saturday’s…

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Captain George @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 6, 1m6f handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3,105 to the winner…


A 7 yr old gelding who was a winner last time out, when scoring over this course and distance 22 days whilst ridden by today’s jockey Mitch Godwin for the very first time.

That win took his A/W record to 3 wins from 8 (37.5% SR), a record which includes of relevance today…

  • 3/6 going left handed, 3/4 here at Wolverhampton and 2/4 at Class 6
  • 2/4 in cheekpieces, 2/3 over 1m6f and 2/3 over course and distance
  • 2/3 in fields of 12-15 runners, 2/2 in February/march and 1/1 under Mitch Godwin.

He’s trained by Michael Blake down in Wiltshire and is Michael’s only runner anywhere today, putting all the yard’s eggs in one basket as they aim to improve upon an already decent record in A/W handicaps that has seen them land 24 winners from just 143 (16.8% SR) runners since the start of 2012.

Backing each of these runners to a £20 stake would have netted you a cool £2964 profit at a very healthy ROI of some 103.6%. And for those who wouldn’t want to just back a trainer blindly, the following logical filters of those 143 runners are at play today…

  • 4 to 7 yr olds are 22/120 (18.3%) for 160.2pts (+133.5%)
  • his only runner at the track that day = 17/100 (17%) for 127.8pts (+127.8%)
  • whilst his only runner anywhere that day = 16/86 (18.6%) for 109.5pts (+127.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 18/82 (22%) for 85.5pts (+104.2%)
  • 16-45 days since last run : 11/75 (14.7%) for 82.9pts (+110.5%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 7/41 (17.1%) for 55.8pts (+136%)
  • LTO winners are 6/25 (24%) for 13.3pts (+53.4%)
  • ridden by Mitch Godwin : 5/231 (23.8%) for 73.5pts (+350.2%)
  • and on Tapeta : 4/17 (23.5%) for 66.4pts (+290.6%)

…steering us towards…a 1pt win bet on Captain George @ 4/1 BOG which was available from SkyBet and a half dozen others at 5.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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