Stat of the Day, 19th March 2018

Saturday’s Runner was…

6.45 Wolverhampton : Captain George @ 4/1 BOG  8th at 15/2 Chased leaders, pushed along when switched right and hampered 3f out, weakened soon after.

We start the new week with Monday’s…

2.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Merdon Castle @ 6/1 BOG

A Class 6, 7f handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner…


A 6 yr old gelding making his yard debut for Ivan Furtado at a track where the trainer doesn’t come very often. In fact since the start of 2017, his record here in 6/7 furlong handicaps is 3 wins and 2 places from just 7 runners, so it can’t be a lack of success keeping him away!

That 42.9% win strike rate has been good for 4.83pts profit at an ROI of 68.9% with those priced shorter than 7/1 winning 3 of 4 (75%) for 7.83pts (+192.75%).

As for runners on yard debut, Ivan’s record is 10 from 61 (16.4% SR) for 20.9pts (+34.3% ROI) with the following angles in play today…

  • handicappers are 10/49 (20.4%) for 32.9pts (+67.2%)
  • those who were unplaced LTO : 8/49 (16.3%) for 17.1pts (+34.8%)
  • over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs : 7/35 (20%) for 17pts (+48.7%)
  • on the A/W : 6/32 (18.75%) for 20.1pts (+62.7%)
  • those with more than 15 previous runs are 8/23 (34.8%) for 37.9pts (+164.7%)
  • 5 to 7 yr olds are 7/22 (31.8%) for 34.5pts (+156.6%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/18 (27.8%) for 28.6pts (+159%)
  • over 7f : 3/16 (18.75%) for 10.6pts (+66.2%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 1/2 (50%) for 1.41pts (+70.5%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Merdon Castle @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, SportPesa & Paddy Power at 5.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.50 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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