Stat of the Day, 20th March 2018

Monday’s Runner was…

2.50 Lingfield : Merdon Castle @ 6/1 BOG  non-runner

Next up is Tuesday’s…

4.45 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Instingtive @ 3/1  BOG

A Class 5, 2m4f novice handicap hurdle (4yo+) on heavy ground worth £3,509 to the winner…

Why?

And a 7 yr old gelding who has made the frame in each of his last three starts, winning the last two (22 & 12 days ago respectively), both under today’s jockey on heavy ground.

Since the start of 2013 in UK handicap hurdle contests, horses who won a novice hurdle last time out (inside the previous 3 months, but after at least 10 days recovery time) are 181/977 (18.5% SR) for 143.8pts (+14.7% ROI), from which…

  • at trips of 2m0.5f to 2m6f : 113/612 (18.5%) for 156.8pts (+25.6%)
  • from February to April inclusive : 71/401 (17.7%) for 70.3pts (+17.5%)
  • 7 yr olds are 25/131 (19.1%) for 55.7pts (+42.5%)
  • on heavy ground : 26/108 (24.1%) for 9.42pts (+8.7%)
  • at class 5 : 23/93 (24.7%) for 12.12pts (+13%)
  • at Wetherby : 6/21 (28.6%) for 9.23pts (+44%)

Plus he’s by Scorpion, whose handicap jumpers are 16/93 (17.2% SR) for 143.7pts (+154.9% ROI) on soft ground or worse since the start of 2017, including…

  • males at 12/70 (17.1%) for 140.7pts (+20.1%)
  • ran within past 45 days : 14/65 (21.5%) for 151.9pts (+233.8%)
  • hurdlers are 9/60 (15%) for 128.2pts (+213.6%)
  • over trips of 2m to 2m4f : 11/40 (27.5%) for 152.7pts (+381.9%)
  • 7 yr olds are 8/33 (24.2%) for 143.9pts (+436%)
  • on heavy ground : 8/32 (25%) for 17.63pts (+55.1%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/13 (38.5%) for 15.5pts (+119.1%)

AND…from the above…6/7 yr old male hurdlers racing over 2m to 2m4f within 45 days of their last run = 5/20 (25% SR) for 130.5pts (+652.5% ROI). from which…

  • on heavy : 3/5 (60%) for 14.25pts (+285%)
  • LTO winners : 1/2 (50%) for 1.1pts (+55%)

and LTO winners on heavy = 1/1 (100%) for 2.1pts (+210%), which was our boy Instingtive‘s last run 12 days ago!

…all pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Instingtive @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Skybet at 4.50pm on Monday, whilst those of you with an unrestricted Bet365 are advised to take their 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.45 Wetherby

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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